Certainly scenarios can be and are described but not all possible scenarios can be listed because they are infinite in number, And this is true in a non-trivial sense.
When you say "They have the data." I assume you are speaking of statistics. But
- These are rare events and statistical analysis is at it's limits,
- The past is no predictor of the future. Example: the introduction and continued enhancement of IEDs in Iraq.
Although he doesn't elaborate on my first point above, I recommend that you also read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, "The Black Swan".
When you say "They have the data." I assume you are speaking of statistics. But
- These are rare events and statistical analysis is at it's limits,
- The past is no predictor of the future. Example: the introduction and continued enhancement of IEDs in Iraq.
Although he doesn't elaborate on my first point above, I recommend that you also read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, "The Black Swan".