Im sorry, but unless this 'math' is going to educate these terrorists, it's not going to do anything. How do you beat something that has no concern for self preservation?
Kind of sounds like the race to find psychics during the World Wars...
I'm surprised to see decision trees referenced: they are unsuitable for modeling real-world situations unless _every_ possible alternative can be determined aforehand, something simply impossible for terrorism (or for most human activity, for that matter).
Certainly scenarios can be and are described but not all possible scenarios can be listed because they are infinite in number, And this is true in a non-trivial sense.
When you say "They have the data." I assume you are speaking of statistics. But
- These are rare events and statistical analysis is at it's limits,
- The past is no predictor of the future. Example: the introduction and continued enhancement of IEDs in Iraq.
Although he doesn't elaborate on my first point above, I recommend that you also read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, "The Black Swan".
