I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard (https://tower.portoptimizer.com/) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.
Reality loses elections? What a surprise! How many politicians have so far sold bullshit lies like greatness again, which the desperate voters keep buying? Freaking planet has double the people (4 extra billions) compared to the 1970's and effects of burning the resources are now more and more apparent, but oh hey, that politician promises a return the prosperity of those times when you didn't even need condoms to fuck, do I want to face reality or do I want to vote for fake hope?
Perhaps. It's not black and white of course, more like black and grey.
Majority of all things Cheeto says are either outright lies or just incoherent rambling which is too hard to decipher.
I mean you do have a point about tribalism and the danger of blindly supporting anyone. However that's almost entirely tangential in this specific case. Just stating the fact that Trump and his cabinet are extremely (purposefully or not) incompetent and corrupt is not partisan in any way whatsoever.
… was not Democrats refusing to accept election results. Thats a talking point by republicans trying to downplay Jan 6 and the false electors plot, not actual fact.
Mueller’s findings were not exactly a ringing exoneration despite how the right likes to frame it. A lot of people went to jail and he specifically said that he couldn’t exonerate and only stopped the investigation due to DoJ policy, and noted that congress could continue.
I mean... what's undoubtedly true is that Trump actively called for foreign intelligence services to attack his political adversary, and then they did that with the express goal of helping Trump win.
The fact that Mueller couldn't prove beyond a reasonable doubt that a specific deal had been made is pretty much immaterial.
I think two weeks is pretty much the low end of transit time for a container from China to US, so I wouldn't expect needing much modeling within that window.
Cruising speed can also be modulated, easily within some ranges. You might speed up a little if you think you can land cargo before new tariffs, and you may slow if you think tariffs may be reduced if you land later. Staff costs for the vessel are relatively small, so as long as you don't go outside the range of speeds that are fuel efficient, there's flexibility.
Some of the tariff increases are so high that they effectively spoil the cargo; there's no point in bringing it through customs at those prices, and it typically won't make sense to ship it back, and it may not be possible to ship it elsewhere from the port either, so it is most likely to be destroyed at the port. Delaying to see if tariffs go down may be worthwhile for enough of the cargo that it makes sense to slow the whole boat.
Additionally, if demand for shipping is up, going faster allows for more supply, and if demand has slowed, going slower reduces supply.
I've very briefly worked with a team that was responsible for satellites that track ships and their AIS data, including trying to identify ships spoofing AIS though various means. (It was civilian, a university group, but I'm sure states have similar and more)
Presumably by asking the Chinese authorities directly? We have near instantaneous global communication these days - that's how I'm conversing with you right now.
It happens all the time but it’s more useful to think in terms of container flows getting rerouted. Container ships sail in fixed loops so have containers on board for multiple ports. It often happens that the order in which the ports are called (the rotation) is changed, or a particular port gets skipped all together. Reasons can be congestion, delays in previous ports, etc. etc. The line can choose to transship the cargo, so pick it up with a second ship to carry it to destination, have the customer pick it up in the new location (possibly with a rebate) or truck/rail it to the final destination themselves.
There was an interview with a shipping manager somewhere (probably the 3-hour documentary by Gamers Nexus?). They said absolutely have been rerouting container ships in transit.
But that’s “same port, different route” rerouting right? Here you would have to have “different port” rerouting (or some really weird weather making the Pacific intransitable”
That is Chinese New Year, it has always a very large drop. It's very impactful but expected and yearly.
My companies reporting needs to correct for it since the date shifts on western calendar and if would mess up all reporting otherwise, so yes, this is extremely significant.
Thank you for the details. I've no doubt that tariffs are having impacts. Was looking at that specific data and finding it hard to conclude with just that data. Does CNY also explain the Week 16->17 drop in 2024?
It’s sad that these posts of relevant facts - that are only presented as such, with no judgement - are being downvoted, apparently because they don’t supportive a narrative. One of the things I’ve always loved about Hacker News was how the community was so curious about truth. I guess all good things come to an end at some point.
There's probably an effect of people who tried as hard as they could to get their goods loaded under the wire before the tariffs took effect, and so the following week would be less, but the following week would be closer to normal.
