The Polish foreign minister already let slip some months ago what's probably really going on behind the scenes -- the US has made it clear to Russia through back channels that any use of "tactical" nukes would be met with the uncorked arsenal of US or NATO conventional forces along the front line in Ukraine. That's, I believe, a legit red line that Russia cannot cross.
As for so-called "strategic" nuclear weapons, nobody is that stupid.
Russia knows full well what it's up against and that it's an inferior force in all respects. All the bluster from idiots like Medvedev is for domestic audiences.
What they can't take by force in Ukraine they'll ruin, covering it in minefields and destroyed cities. If they can't have it, they want it destroyed as an internal example of what happens if you try to toss off their kleptocracy. Belarus among others I'm sure are watching closely.
Just because they are rattling their rattler doesn’t mean they don’t also have ability to bite. War hawks like to test the opponent in hopes the opponent is rational.
One hopes Russia, North Korea and China remain rational. Yet they retain the ability to strike and underestimating that is foolish.
Those were escalations not red lines, and Putin has not threatened a nuclear response to anything Ukraine has done (or even anything it could feasibly do).
The western media declares pretty much every escalation step to be a crossed red line though. This meme has reached new heights of absurdity.
Edit:
* No, Putin did not threaten to nuke anyone if Sweden joined NATO. A western newspaper might have declared it to be a red line. It's not a red line.
* No, Putin did not threaten to nuke anyone if Finland joined NATO. A western newspaper might have declared it to be a red line. It's not a red line.
* No, Putin did not threaten to use nukes if Ukraine invaded pre 2014 Russian territory or fired drones at refineries. A western newspaper might have declared it to be a red line. It's not a red line.
* No, "Putin said something vaguely ominous about nukes" is not drawing a red line.
Are Ukraine's rather successful incursion into Russian territory and successful strikes against oil refineries and airfields deep inside Russian territory escalations or red lines?
I can never tell which is which with Russian apologists
I welcome your "not a red line" interpretation of quotes like these:
> Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful security council, was more explicit in January. “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war,” he said. - https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/...
> Anticipating international condemnation and countermeasures, Putin issued a stark warning to other countries not to meddle, saying, “whoever tries to impede us, let alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to the consequences you have never seen in history.” https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-launches-attacks-u...
> Those were escalations not red lines, and Putin has not threatened a nuclear response to anything Ukraine has done (or even anything it could feasibly do).
Putin threatened nukes if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, but I'm sure that's just a meme as well.
> We really don't want open war between the Western powers and Russia.
True. But unfortunately Putin loves playing on that fact to keep us frozen and hesistant to send aid.
Ukraine’s recent advance into Kursk shows you how little his supposed red lines actually exist.
And to the often held claim that NATO is a threat to Russia and is to blame for making Russia move into Ukraine, Russia’s actions in Ukraine betray this little myth. They’re depleting the stocks of expensive tactical ballistic missiles as well as very expensive high end surface-to-air missiles by hucking them at even tiniest targets in Ukraine.
This isn’t what you would do if you were actually worried about needing to confront aggressive, well funded western neighbors later.
In one of those ironies that seem to populate modern life, the now public ineptitude of the Russian military in Ukraine has in fact given some western military leaders an inkling that directly taking on the Russians is a viable option.
It’s Russia whose the one that can’t afford more open war than they already have.
They can’t even handle their current one against single country with NATO hand-me-downs.
Russia would love nothing more than to scare people into cutting Ukraine off, but most aren’t dumb enough to fall for that anymore. Russia is ruled by a raging narcissist, but the people that carry out his orders are gangsters who want luxury and power, not an ideological suicide.
The “we are strong, muh nukes” is really meant for Russian television.
We really don't want open war between the Western powers and Russia.