Why? What would make it more valuable than other stores of value? Bitcoin is roughly at end-of-2020 valuation. So is the NASDAQ. So is the S&P500. So is the Dow.

In fact, for most other stores of value, "dies out in this bear market" isn't even a consideration - the statement is reflective of a (perceived?) higher volatility of the crypto market.

If this is showing anything, it's that crypto currencies are just as vulnerable to monetary policy as other assets.

The thing that makes anything valuable, which is people who believe that it's valuable? Markets aren't rational.

Like I said, I'm not using recent past performance to try to make predictions. I'm more considering first principles et al.

If you compare the volatility of common cryptocurrencies with the volatility of pretty much any major currency, crypto is way worse. (E.g., GBP and US inflation are around 9%, this year, but Bitcoin and Ethereum are down by 70%). The most important thing for a store of value is that it actually holds value, but crypto has a poor track record there.

Sure. I'm less going by "history" and more by "first principles." Crypto provably does what it says on the tin to some degree, even if that degree is low. I wouldn't use recent past performance as a strong predictor of immediate future performance; thinking more long term possibilities.

I have to wonder when imaginary "first principles" speculation for crypto will give way to evaluating it on its actual track record.

I mean, it's extremely young in the history of the existence of money. I don't think you can say anything meaningful about its track record as of yet.

I absolutely can. Venmo and M-Pesa are equivalently young and have proven track records that are easy to evaluate. Because they work!

If you want to make the case that cryptocurrencies deserve to be judged by something other than the absolute clusterfuck they have been so far, you have to make some sort of argument, preferably one with significant data. Otherwise, I think we're in the territory of "what can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence".

In 2008/2009 when Bitcoin became a thing, we (IRC dorks) were mining it because of the recession. When 1 Bitcoin = $1 USD, that was a big deal - and when it broke past $5 USD that was an even bigger deal.

Bitcoin was made because of the recession and how poorly interconnected global economies were performing. It was supposed to be currency separated from politics/regional crisis.

Maybe we don't want people to store their wealth forever. Imagine having the same billionaires running the world for centuries.