The UK has a relatively strong chance of creating decent competitive challengers to Apple if the UK market opens up with their exit. Even if a few consumers are frustrated in the short term this could lead to a fantastic outcome for a competitive consumer marketplace over the long-term.
Imagining a change in the tech landscape isn't that absurd. If there's a vacuum in the market, do you not think there are capable technology startups in the UK that could fill it?
I can certainly imagine the UK doing well in some tech niches, but not in high-end, global scale consumer electronics like Apple, no.
The high-end mobile phone market outside Apple is a shark-infested red ocean to start with. Then there's the fact that even if Apple stopped operating in the UK, you'd still have to compete with them globally.
I cannot foresee a Black Swan event like a random dude from the Midlands becoming the next Steve Jobs, but other than that I don't think it's worth entertaining that there will be a real British contender to the American trillion dollar mastodon.
I don't think a sudden Apple competitor is at all likely to appear either, but not from any country, nothing really significantly making it more or less likely from the USA or UK (or Germany or Canada or ...) IMO.
With the exception I suppose that perhaps it is more likely from China than anywhere, public perception really soured but you could imagine Huawei (or Xioami or whatever) phones could've gotten popular. (They can never seem to get fonts and branding 'right' though? I don't understand why they don't hire 'western' branding consultants, even dirt cheap students, just to get some feedback on the way things look. It wouldn't take much to be able to charge a lot more for the obviously identifiable tat on Amazon (and also all over AliExpress).)
> Imagining a change in the tech landscape isn't that absurd. If there's a vacuum in the market, do you not think there are capable technology startups in the UK that could fill it?
No.
Samsung, Huawei and Sony would fill it.
There is no UK company that has the scale to be able to deliver a competing product before those companies absorb all the available market share.
I expect any change in the marketplace that a startup could fill is one where Apple is already non-dominant, and therefore not preventing a vacuum by occupying. Worse, in the hypothetical where Apple left the UK in order to not be bound by a UK-specific IP infringement judgment, Apple would be have greater liberty to just fire up the metaphorical photocopier.
Like I said in another comment, the high-end consumer mobile market outside of Apple is a red ocean and I seriously doubt the UK would be able to build a global scale corporation commanding ludicrous margins like Apple.
> with Brexit it has become fashionable in certain quarters to 'do-down' the UK's capabilities
It has also certainly become fashionable in other quarters to 'do-up' the UK's capabilities.
I don't deny that the UK has technological clout beyond digital, with excellent universities, a great tradition in science and engineering, and a global hub in London.
Time for the great Dana Sibera (https://twitter.com/NanoRaptor) to make some wondrous alternate history pictures of a world where there was a BBC Micro smartphone, or a ZX tablet.
> We have tons of opportunities in the UK to build a mobile firm. ARM is based here, for starters.
Unfortunately with Brexit it has become fashionable in certain quarters to 'do-down' the UK's capabilities.
The problem with building a mobile firm is that it's extremely expensive capital wise, and difficult.
There has not been an effective new entrant in the market globally in quite some time. It is not "doing the UK down" to suggest that there is no opportunity here for someone who doesn't already do high end phone manufacturing, and it's worth noting that the margins for everyone else in the mobile market are pretty crummy actually.
Also it’s a nearly free victory to anybody challenging the incumbents in power at the time. Imagine being one of the people on duty when Apple (a hugely popular consumer brand) pulls out of your country. Hard to explain that one to the constituency and come out looking good.
We'd have new legislation within a week targeting patent trolls. I can't imagine anything that'd make a government more unpopular than taking away everyone's iPhones, iPads and Macs.
I know "meaningful" isn't well-defined, but more than 1% of the entire UK workforce is not dependent on the App Store (that couldn't be replaced by any other app marketplace)
Ah, I missed that. That does make a difference, and I could only justify it in the unlikely event of a decent percentage of those apps being for businesses specifically dependent on iOS apps in particular rather than mobile phones and websites in general.
It would create quite a power vacuum, and it would scare people in other countries as well.
But I'm not convinced that it would cause a new competitor to exist. I think it's more likely that existing companies will eat up that market instead, and I don't think there are any UK companies poised to take over that market segment.
"People will simply import iPhones from elsewhere" is not an option - if there's a patent decision, then it would also mean that imports are a patent violation, all iPhones would have to be seized at the customs. Not-for sale items in personal luggage might be exempt, but bringing a new iPhone in a box for someone else would literally be contraband in this situation.
Well yes but smuggling is a very old occupation for a reason. People won't follow a law they think is illegitimate when they feel they can get away with it. So it would work like the war on drugs. Cocaine is very common for a consumable "not an option" for importing.
Hell that same circumstance of personal use is how the underground USSR blue jeans market came about!
