Imagining a change in the tech landscape isn't that absurd. If there's a vacuum in the market, do you not think there are capable technology startups in the UK that could fill it?
I can certainly imagine the UK doing well in some tech niches, but not in high-end, global scale consumer electronics like Apple, no.
The high-end mobile phone market outside Apple is a shark-infested red ocean to start with. Then there's the fact that even if Apple stopped operating in the UK, you'd still have to compete with them globally.
I cannot foresee a Black Swan event like a random dude from the Midlands becoming the next Steve Jobs, but other than that I don't think it's worth entertaining that there will be a real British contender to the American trillion dollar mastodon.
I don't think a sudden Apple competitor is at all likely to appear either, but not from any country, nothing really significantly making it more or less likely from the USA or UK (or Germany or Canada or ...) IMO.
With the exception I suppose that perhaps it is more likely from China than anywhere, public perception really soured but you could imagine Huawei (or Xioami or whatever) phones could've gotten popular. (They can never seem to get fonts and branding 'right' though? I don't understand why they don't hire 'western' branding consultants, even dirt cheap students, just to get some feedback on the way things look. It wouldn't take much to be able to charge a lot more for the obviously identifiable tat on Amazon (and also all over AliExpress).)
> Imagining a change in the tech landscape isn't that absurd. If there's a vacuum in the market, do you not think there are capable technology startups in the UK that could fill it?
No.
Samsung, Huawei and Sony would fill it.
There is no UK company that has the scale to be able to deliver a competing product before those companies absorb all the available market share.
I expect any change in the marketplace that a startup could fill is one where Apple is already non-dominant, and therefore not preventing a vacuum by occupying. Worse, in the hypothetical where Apple left the UK in order to not be bound by a UK-specific IP infringement judgment, Apple would be have greater liberty to just fire up the metaphorical photocopier.
Like I said in another comment, the high-end consumer mobile market outside of Apple is a red ocean and I seriously doubt the UK would be able to build a global scale corporation commanding ludicrous margins like Apple.
> with Brexit it has become fashionable in certain quarters to 'do-down' the UK's capabilities
It has also certainly become fashionable in other quarters to 'do-up' the UK's capabilities.
I don't deny that the UK has technological clout beyond digital, with excellent universities, a great tradition in science and engineering, and a global hub in London.
Time for the great Dana Sibera (https://twitter.com/NanoRaptor) to make some wondrous alternate history pictures of a world where there was a BBC Micro smartphone, or a ZX tablet.
> We have tons of opportunities in the UK to build a mobile firm. ARM is based here, for starters.
Unfortunately with Brexit it has become fashionable in certain quarters to 'do-down' the UK's capabilities.
The problem with building a mobile firm is that it's extremely expensive capital wise, and difficult.
There has not been an effective new entrant in the market globally in quite some time. It is not "doing the UK down" to suggest that there is no opportunity here for someone who doesn't already do high end phone manufacturing, and it's worth noting that the margins for everyone else in the mobile market are pretty crummy actually.
