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England House Prices Sad Story – Live Dashboard (briskat.com)
16 points by briskat on Aug 5, 2015 | hide | past | favorite | 49 comments



> England is already the second most crowded major country in the EU

This particular definition of country is an abuse of the British term (let alone "major"). You cannot compare England to Italy; you could compare it to Northern Italy, maybe. If you want to compare "major" country to "major" country, then use UK numbers. Figures would likely look different: every "major" nation out there will have more populous and less populous areas. You don't get to discount Scotland but include Southern Italy just because it suits your viewpoint better.

TBH, here in Northern England there is still plenty of brownfield to revamp and house prices are fairly sane. The problem is not Europe or England, it's bloody London, so go fix your own bloody problem.


I actually found this on wikipedia https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_popul...:

"England officially became the second most crowded major country in the EU in 2008, according to figures released by the British Office for National Statistics"

I believe, it's because people from continental Europe sometimes don't differ between UK and England - but it's sensitive issue in the UK :-). UK is actually the first if we take European countries with over 20M people - 255people/km2.


And if we take countries with less than 20M people they're not even on the list, imagine that.


It's clear, that the regions varies - and you have the possibility to go and check the data in the dashboard - they are the ultimate source. It's definitely not only London and not England only. That's about it.


England is more than four times the area of the second most dense EU country (Belgium) and nevertheless has higher population density.

So the wording is imprecise but I don't think the comparison is unfair.


Actually afaik the Netherlands is more population dense than Belgium (and has a population nearing 20m, instead of a little over 10m.)

Beyond that, it's absolutely true, the UK tops the list as a country with more than 20m people. (besides Germany, about 10% less dense or so, other populous countries like France, Spain, Poland, Ukraine, are much less dense, sometimes less than half as much)


Right, Belgium is the second most dense ["major"] EU country and NL is the first ... because as stated upthread, England isn't a country.


NL is considerably more dense than Belgium and definitely not the most dense (that's Monaco).


Sorry, I omitted the qualifier ("major" in the original I was criticising) that was meant to exclude the tiny states which really are not a fair comparison (100 times smaller).


Belgium and NL are about the same size.


But Monaco is not. So NL is the most dense [macroscopic] EU state, and England is more dense than the second most dense such state, Belgium.


This is an interesting map of population density in the UK (from 2011): http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/interactive/census-map-2-1---pop-d...)

A quick search didn't turn up anything with a decent resolution that covered Europe/the rest of the world at the same time (seemed mainly to be on a per-country basis).


I am particularly confused what made you so upset. Is it something that offends you?


He's not upset, he simply likes for things presented as facts to actually be facts and for the representation to fit reality without cherry picking the bits that support the foregone conclusion.


So then England is country and Northern Italy is a cultural and geographical region, without any administrative purpose. Those are facts. But I am confused because those facts are simply verifiable and nobody should react to them in this way.


Does England have a seat at the UN?

I rest my case.


Countries don't have seats in UN, states and kingdoms do. I rest my case.


So let me get this straight -- which French "country" would you compare to England? The one that, by pure chance, happens to overlap with France-the-nation? Izzard's sketch on the tactical deployment of flags comes to mind.

Oh, and what "administrative purpose" binds England so much, considering it doesn't even have its own separated Parliament? Just because you have a west-lothian identity crisis, it doesn't mean the world has to play along.

You are free to refer to UK "countries" in internal matters (and football, of course), but when you go and compare with the rest of the world, you should be as honest as to compare entity-with-UN-seat to entity-with-UN-seat. Otherwise I might as well compare a couple of busy Italian blocks of flats to a Kent farm.

EDIT: I don't make this point out of some particular passion, but because your idea absolves the UK government of abdicating its responsibilities. If there is a density problem in London, enact policies attracting people to other cities, cities that actually need more people and would benefit from expansion. That's what other countries do. Coming up with arbitrary comparisons just to twist facts to this or that agenda is simply dishonest.


Some states has only one country as France you just mentioned. I don't understand why referring to facts you perceive as reality twisting. What's wrong with you?


It makes the property market look a bit more stable than it really is if you compare to this graph http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/


Something not mentioned here is the historically low interest rates. The Bank of England base rate is only 0.5%, with mortgages available for only 2.0%.

I think if mortgage rates went back to 6% - 8% a lot of people would be screwed.


Wouldn't the whole economy be screwed if interest rates are back up that much? It seems the low interest rates are the new normal, unless for some reason inflation becomes very high. With commodity prices falling hard due to increase productivity, that threat seems to be quite far now.


The key here is demand - with open door immigration from Europe, that demand is ever increasing. People are flocking to the UK, and want somewhere to live. As long as we have that massive population explosion, there's only one way for house prices to go.

If we want to solve the problem, and a whole host of other problems, perhaps we shouldn't have an open door immigration policy.


Hmmm I think it's unfair to put the cause purely on immigration. A few other causal factors:

- Anglo Saxon obsession with property. There is a culture of being obsessed with home ownership in Anglo-Saxon countries. Particularly the UK. This pushes people to pay over the top for property and thus increases prices even further.

- Property prices seem to be increasing particularly sharply around London & Brighton. This is because they are wealth creation centres. Well paid jobs, tourism, industry, culture all cause property prices to go up as people want to live there.

- Weather. This one isn't written about so much. But the hypothesis is that people tend to want to live in the South because of better weather. The weather in Kent is far better than is say Yorkshire in terms of net sunlight and average temperatures.

I would be willing to bet that, in the past, property prices would have still sharply increased in certain areas even without high immigration.


restrictions on supply are the most important factor outside central london. There is no reason why sufficient housing could not be built in Kent or Oxfordshire to meet new demand.


It's not as clear cut as that. I'm not sure if you've seen: https://fullfact.org/factchecks/immigrantion_house_prices-28..., but there isn't a clear correlation between immigration rates and house prices.

Some reports even suggest the opposite, that increases in immigration can REDUCE house prices: "The University of Cambridge study concluded that an immigration inflow equal to 1% of the local initial population leads to a reduction of 1.6% in house prices".


Thanks, we posted at the same time.

Making unsubstantiated claims such as those of the parent is what drives the anti-EU right in the UK.

At least on HN, show me the numbers.


The numbers are clear and obvious to those who seek them with a clear head.

More people = more demand for housing = higher prices.


Yeah, those Cambridge idiots were probably drunk when they conducted their research and produced their report.

You're probably best off just trusting your gut instinct on these things.


Those Cambridge people depend on immigration to pay their fees. They're hardly unbiased.

Do you really seriously think that an increasing population could ever lead to falling demand for housing? How would that one work?

The charts in their "study" show clearly. Immigration increases, house prices increase.


Nigel? Is that you?


Cite them then. You are the one making the claims! Demonstrate your point is based on something other than xenophobic rhetoric!


Markets are not always linear...


Please make a citation that it is explicitly EU migration that is the cause of the housing shortage.


...or, build more affordable housing? Its not a zero-sum game. Change the rules!


Building more and more housing isn't sustainable. We are a tiny island with limited land.

A lot of people (Myself included) don't like to live in cities caged up like battery chickens.


Still, google satellite view shows that island as substantially undeveloped. You get a narrow view, living in a big city. Start to think the whole country looks like out your window.


Not just that, there are huge amounts of unreclaimed brownfield all around England, waiting to be put to good use. This country used to be the engine of the world, that took a lot of land that is now just rotting away.

And of course, one could also envision policies that actually create attraction centres alternative to London. But surely that's unreasonable to expect.


Everywhere has limited land. The question is how close are we to the limit? Given that the UK is, depending on how you count it, on the order of 10% urban, we could hide another city in it without noticing.


I'm an immigrant from france. I bought 2 houses in the UK.

It's not /just/ a question of where to live, it's also a question of someday getting /some/ sort of pension -- it's very likely that pension rates returns are never going to be maintainable for 30 years since the gov can plunder it, and the 'age of retirement' will continue to climb (measured using the age of death of people who retired at 60 or earlier and who are dying now, and thus had a MUCH longer expectancy than us lot who'll have to work til 75 or so..)

So, houses are just investments. When I'll retire, I'll dump them, get the capital and use /that/ to live.

And yes, I know I'm not the 'typical' immigrant, but then again, I am one.


What makes you so confident that the gov can't "plunder" investment properties? It looks like they're finally starting to turn on Buy-To-Let now, and IMHO not before time.

Why do people rob banks? Because that's where the money is. Where's the money in the UK? In property.

As property ownership becomes ever more concentrated, it a) becomes a more tempting target for fiscal raids and b) has fewer votes. There's a US economist whose name I forget who proposes that the big driver of property cycles isn't credit but regulation, as govts deregulate too much then finally swing back when the horrible consequences become electorally inconvenient.


Well they can plunder properties, however, this is not the direction everything seems to be headed; for example, they've just relieved the inheritance tax, they are trying to help people buy property, it would be massively counterproductive to start making owning a property less interesting.

Also, it'd still be a better use of money than a pension that is 1) locked and 2) unusable until perhaps after you are dead... At least you can 1) sell it and buy something else and 2) live in a house and enjoy it.

Mind you, I don't completely understand the drive most people have here to 'buy our own home' - even in their early 20's!- in france, people don't even think about buying anything until they hit 35 or more! People are quite happy to rent a flat for a long while... or forever in many cases.

Also, there the geometry problem: in france, the big majority of 'comfortable' homes are in fact in small apartment blocks, all over the cities. In the UK, you need a 'detached home' otherwise, it's no go. Needless to say, it's not terribly space efficient. Most new properties outside london are smaller and smaller 'semi detached' format that are often smaller in surface than a nice flat!

So i think there's also quite a bit of 'cultural' bias to the property crisis.


I was talking specifically about investment properties, i.e. excluding the primary residence.

I'm not aware of any moves by uk.gov to "help people buy property" to live in. If you mean the so-called "Help to Buy" policy, that IMO had precisely the opposite effect in that it kicked off the latest round of price insanity on the perception that uk.gov would support the bubble with taxpayer money if necessary. It was an extremely cynical and damaging move with no obvious rationale other than the electoral one.

Fully agree that France does housing much better than the UK. Pretty much everyone does housing much better than the UK. We have an anti-market, designed to deliver the smallest possible number of lowest possible quality homes at the highest possible price. Yay.


The majority of the immigrants are not exactly in a position to buy houses, they might cause some rent inflation but you can't categorically tie immigration to house price inflation like that.

The better explanation is that real estate is just about the only thing that can boundlessly go up in price without any perceived increase in quality or performance and so it tends to be a sink for surplus wealth generated by a nation. On top of that there are a lot of wealthy people competing with each other for investing in the UK real estate market (and those are not just UK residents) and interest rates are at an historic low which tends to drive up prices.


House prices in the UK, particularly in the south of the country, have been increasing above inflation for several decades. There was only a relatively brief decrease in average values following the financial crisis. This is because the major driver of house price increases in the UK is the limitation of the supply of developable land caused by Britain's inflexible and outdated planning system.


It's just that you can't have your cake and eat it too.

If London must continue being the ever-expanding world-beating hard-rocking sweat-soaking multi-megalopolis, then the surrounding countryside has to give. If the countryside has to be preserved, London must stop attracting people or even incentivize residents to move elsewhere.

I find it incredible that, because nobody can make a choice one way or the other, the rest of the country is forced to pay the price, as money flows to London "home investments" from more useful economic activity, the brain-drain towards the capital continues unabated, and brownfields keep rotting away.


> It's just that you can't have your cake and eat it too.

You can build up instead of out.


It will solve itself. In Ireland most immigrants left after crisis and market collapsed.


Looking forward to the referendum...




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