The comments here suggest people are missing the full significance of this problem. It's not just a cute number puzzle - it demonstrates a profound human weakness that has a deep impact in everything we do.
1. People that think having a gun in the house makes it safer will not try to design an experiment designed to demonstrate the opposite.
2. People who think organic food is better for you than regular food will not try to look for evidence that the two types of foods are equally healthy.
3. An Israeli who believes the area where he lives was uninhabited before 1948 is not going to think about what kind of evidence would contradict that belief.
I'm not saying the views above are incorrect. It's just that we are all guilty of falling in love with our beliefs when they should be mere acquaintances. Hence the quote, "People don't change their minds. They die, and are replaced by people with different opinions." [1]
1. People that think having a gun in the house makes it safer will not try to design an experiment designed to demonstrate the opposite.
2. People who think organic food is better for you than regular food will not try to look for evidence that the two types of foods are equally healthy.
3. An Israeli who believes the area where he lives was uninhabited before 1948 is not going to think about what kind of evidence would contradict that belief.
I'm not saying the views above are incorrect. It's just that we are all guilty of falling in love with our beliefs when they should be mere acquaintances. Hence the quote, "People don't change their minds. They die, and are replaced by people with different opinions." [1]
[1] http://www.paulgraham.com/quo.html