Arrhenius probably did no empirical research in this field. He devised a generalized formula based on theoretical considerations and indirect measurements (of the moon's appearance). It would take ~60 years before a quorum of researchers believed his formula could provide accurate real-life predictions.
Moravec's 70s papers are roughly comparable to Arrhenius's formula. The basic computational power predictions (a minor extension of Moore's law) still seem to be basically correct. There's a reasonable debate to be had about whether more interesting predictions made by Moravec/Kurzweil/etc. have been validated or not.
Moravec's 70s papers are roughly comparable to Arrhenius's formula. The basic computational power predictions (a minor extension of Moore's law) still seem to be basically correct. There's a reasonable debate to be had about whether more interesting predictions made by Moravec/Kurzweil/etc. have been validated or not.