Large movie production houses won't die in the near future, because predicting a financial winner isn't as hard as you make it sound. We currently have a movie economy that is driving the big producers to make big budget comic book sequels that do well internationally (generally based on the universal appeal of liking suspense and action). They've boxed themselves into a very profitable corner of funding high budget movies that independent producers can't fund and then profiting internationally. They make a movie for $200M then make $300M+ in sales.

I do agree that more independent (but still highly funded) producers are rolling dice, then manufacturing winners with their marketing power.