> Uber might not win the space, but I think its naive to think that self-driving cars don't shift the balance more in favor of for-hire cars.
I completely agree. For-hire self-driving vehicles are the future, I just don't believe Uber and Lyft are going to be the platform.
Off-topic: Whenever I see analysts argue that Tesla isn't making cars fast enough to compete with Big automakers, I chuckle. Elon doesn't have to replace every car, he just has to replace the door to door trips, which he can do with only ~10-15% of the current US vehicle fleet on the road. Self-driving Tesla vehicles for hire would further fund Tesla expansions (which provides additional capital for their Gigafactory to drive down battery storage costs, thereby enabling the wide-spread transition to intermittent renewables such as solar, wind, and tidal).
Zip cars had no operator overhead and had convenient downtown and other high demand locations where parking is expensive, but in the end they wound up not really impacting overall personal car ownership, and the company was absorbed by Avis. It's not clear that driverless cars represent a huge threat to auto sales to consumers. American homes are filled with personal possessions which they don't actually need to own. Like home entertainment systems which largely make shared venues like movie theaters less of a draw.
One reason to take a cab, or uber, or a train to the airport or downtown is the time and expense of parking. But if my car can just park itself at a low cost remote structure, go home, or say earn a few bucks taking a fare, and come back for me, then it's less of a hassle to drive to the city. I don't have to worry as much about being too tired to drive longer distances, I could just snooze or read a book. I'd probably be more likely to let my car drive me to LA overnight, and perhaps take fewer flights and consequently rent fewer cars. I could send my car to pick up food or packages or friends. Overall, it seems like my car is more useful to me, not less, if it can drive itself. If I can hire it out when I'm not using it, it might make it more affordable to own, as well. I doubt most people would rent out their own car with any regularity, unless they had to, any more than they want a bunch of strangers sitting on their furniture and messing with their stuff.
I completely agree. For-hire self-driving vehicles are the future, I just don't believe Uber and Lyft are going to be the platform.
Off-topic: Whenever I see analysts argue that Tesla isn't making cars fast enough to compete with Big automakers, I chuckle. Elon doesn't have to replace every car, he just has to replace the door to door trips, which he can do with only ~10-15% of the current US vehicle fleet on the road. Self-driving Tesla vehicles for hire would further fund Tesla expansions (which provides additional capital for their Gigafactory to drive down battery storage costs, thereby enabling the wide-spread transition to intermittent renewables such as solar, wind, and tidal).