I think there's still a race between IPv6 adoption and carrier-grade NAT. If the big ISPs deploy CGN rather than IPv6, that will eliminate the big motivation behind v6 (the IPv4 address runout), while at the same time neutering the Internet into something resembling little more than interactive broadcast media. Given that the major US ISPs--which tend to either be broadcast media conglomerates (threatened by P2P media displacing traditional broadcast) or telecommunications conglomerates (threatened by VOIP displacing more profitable wireline services)--would seem to have a motivation to go the CGN route, I'm holding my breath a bit.
IPv6 seems to be winning, in the sense that I don't think we'll all get stuck behind CGN and IPv4 forever, but I'm not quite ready to call the race just yet.
I had never heard about CGN before you mentioned it. Thanks.
CGN is certainly not where we want to end up. I believe it is time to start pushing the local ISP harder for IPv6. /rolls up sleeves/
The IPv6 deployment strategy with relays means that IPv6 in itself is a workaround for CGN, as long as there's enough relays.
Deployments of CGN might even boost IPv6 use for that reason, if IPv6 + Teredo becomes the most convenient way of bypassing an internet connection that is otherwise neutered..
Most of the proposals I've seen call for rolling out IPv6 and CGN at the same time, because giving customers only CGN would be obviously worse than what they have now.
I think there's still a race between IPv6 adoption and carrier-grade NAT. If the big ISPs deploy CGN rather than IPv6, that will eliminate the big motivation behind v6 (the IPv4 address runout), while at the same time neutering the Internet into something resembling little more than interactive broadcast media. Given that the major US ISPs--which tend to either be broadcast media conglomerates (threatened by P2P media displacing traditional broadcast) or telecommunications conglomerates (threatened by VOIP displacing more profitable wireline services)--would seem to have a motivation to go the CGN route, I'm holding my breath a bit.
IPv6 seems to be winning, in the sense that I don't think we'll all get stuck behind CGN and IPv4 forever, but I'm not quite ready to call the race just yet.