Start with a prior based on your subjective view of the world and perform Bayesian updates based on evidence (e.g., the bible, koran, or currently unexplained miracles), same as you make other decision.
I just find this cheap dismissal of Pascal's wager to be mathematically nonsensical. It's almost surely not correct that the probabilities of all gods (real and honeypot) exactly cancel and therefore atheism is the correct choice.
Even if at some time those positive and negative utilities did cancel, even a small amount of evidence would shift the balance of probabilities pushing you back into Pascal's wager territory.
I just find this cheap dismissal of Pascal's wager to be mathematically nonsensical. It's almost surely not correct that the probabilities of all gods (real and honeypot) exactly cancel and therefore atheism is the correct choice.
Even if at some time those positive and negative utilities did cancel, even a small amount of evidence would shift the balance of probabilities pushing you back into Pascal's wager territory.