Actually I think the guys who predicted that iPhone will flop are the same guys who think VR is world-changing. The common theme is misunderstanding of the potential users and the problems the product solves. VR solves zero problems for me.

This might well be right. VR proponents like to present people who disagree with them as conservatives, but is it not in fact the case that the VR proponents are the real conservatives?

That is, the ubiquity of computing devices that you get with smartphones, which the iPhone kicked off, is something genuinely fairly new, which not a lot of people had previously imagined. VR, on the other hand, is something people have been imagining for decades, producing compelling fictional versions; but every attempt to implement it suggests that it's not actually a very good idea. VR proponents are stuck with a nostalgic vision of the future, rather than trying to imagine something genuinely novel.

(On the other hand, people were imagining video phones as the next big thing for years, and they seemed to never take off, until they did; Skype hasn't replaced non-video phones, but it is ubiquitous.)

Perhaps, which is why I put the caveat "Usable" VR. The problem with VR right now is that it's not very user friendly.

Some people predict that the instant we have complete VR, all human progress will cease. We will have no reason to seek new experiences in the real world because we can simulate any experience we want in the virtual world.

And this means progress stops ... because...?

I could see making this argument for true AI, maybe, but even then I doubt it's true. When in human history has allowing people's minds greater degrees of freedom resulted in progress slowing down, let alone stopping?

This just sounds like "Kids these days..." kind of nonsense to me.

That's bunk. Most people don't care about fake experiences.

Most people spend quite a lot of time having "fake experiences". TV, movies, and video games are wildly popular, and consume quite a lot of people's time. As they become more immersive through VR, and provide an even better escape from reality, it's natural to expect them to become more popular, not less.

TV, movie, and video game story-lines also near-uniformly consist of situations that would be unpleasant or even traumatizing to actually live through.

Everyone thinks it's a great story when the heroine sets out to avenge her father's murder and ends up saving the world. Most people do not actually want to have their father murdered and then deal with an existentially-threatening war for the survival of the human species. Likewise, everyone enjoys a good round of the Hero's Journey, but most people don't really want Spiderman-level responsibility (and yet find superheroism largely meaningless without it).

Many people really enjoy sports dramas in film. Very few people want to pack endless hours over a period of years into athletic training and then find out they've only got even odds against the opponent who also trained hard. Even fewer people want to just beat sports video-games by some athletic equivalent of "Rare Candies", leveling up without actually training or working hard.

Oh, and people who actually try to do the stuff portrayed in romantic comedies are called creeps, let alone the entire creepy-vampire-romance section of the bookstore.

People would have a much better point about escapism "overtaking" real life if more of our culture's fantasies consisted of experiences we actually really want to live through when confronted with the possibility.

Only because they're not good enough at the moment: once it's indistinguishable from reality, they'll choose the path of lesser resistance that gives them the most control.

Let me put it this way: imagine the derision, scorn, and hatred heaped upon furries, /a/utists, Tumblrites, bronies, MMORPG addicts, and all other sorts of low-status netizens who are already perceived as overly escapist, and who thus get labeled "faggots" and beaten up for their lunch money. Now multiply it by a rather large quantity. In fact, you might have to outright square it.

That is how people are going to act towards those who deliberately cut themselves off from real life to spend time on VRs. There is going to be bullying among children and harassment among adults (but I repeat myself). There will be lawsuits and alarmist attempts at legislation.

Now, I don't really think either side of this coming dichotomy is healthy or correct. I think that escapism is fun, but it's not real life, but it is a strict subset of valid ways to spend real-life time. However, if your prediction bears out, that dichotomy is going to form.

Haha. Then I'll hope I'm wrong, but come up with clear reasons why this will be mainstream and mass market.

Simple: it provides a hyper-compelling experience that is completely unavailable through any other means, and does so for merely the price of a peripheral. Doubters will visit a friend's house and use it and be instantly sold. VR is a Big Deal.

I've given several reasons why it won't work this way, and you just come up with an assumption that the current VR tech is SOOOOO good that everyone will want one. Did you go to the GDC ?

Having used the DK1 it was obvious even with all the limitations that VR will be a dominant entertainment platform within a decade. It's simply too compelling to be anything other.

But you can't do other things at the same time, like look at your phone or the world around you. The value is limited.

It is not a joke. I'm not meaning it as a smart-ass retort:

Porn == Money

LOL. They said this stuff in the 80s too. I remember, I went to an arcade where they had VR...