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The median outcome is low, but the expected value is pretty high for starting a startup.

Mark Zuckerberg is worth $20 billion after 7 years

This is such a fallacy, though. And not just on the maths. Financial incentives don't drive artists and hackers.[1] Your one empirical datapoint even demonstrates that. Financial incentives drive the second or thrid generation of followers, sure. But the creators and the momentum players are often cut from different cloth.

[1] because as pointed out, they are on average flawed.




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