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Would it be so terrible if Amazon just stayed as a break-even company forever?



It would certainly be terrible for the shareholders. The whole point of investing in a company is to share in the profit.


Being a shareholder, you have a share in the ownership of the company. You make money when the value of the company increases. This is especially true with Amazon, which does not pay dividends (a share of profits to investors).


For a static, non-growing company, you can treat its value as equivalent to a bond paying as much interest as that company pays in dividends.

Company can have value w/o giving out money if it's expected that it will give out more money tomorrow; but it can't be expected to keep that way forever.

A stable, static company that brings $0 profit is worth $0 if it's intended to keep running that way; or worth $assets-$liabilities if it's intended to be stopped and dismantled.


That's true. However, the value of the company will only increase if it develops profitable business units or it accumulates salable assets. In both cases this represents delayed profit, not nonexistent profit.


Yes; everyone investing it would be wasting their money.


Not if Amazon decides to use some of it's free cash to buy back shares...

Share buybacks and dividends are the end game for all public companies. Profits don't mean anything if money isn't being returned to shareholders.

Amazon's generous valuation means that long-term investors think they'll continue to grow, and someday they'll return money to shareholders...


If they never make a profit, how do they obtain the cash to spend on buying back shares?


Their businesses are profitable, they just aren't booking profits. Odds are eventually they'll simply use free cash to buy back shares instead of reinvesting it. Which is why Amazon attracts quite a few very sophisticated long-term investors, and why they command a relatively high valuation.


Well, it's possible to have free cash without being profitable on paper. For instance, remember that depreciation is a major expense for capitalised assets (such as fulfillment centres, data centres, computer equipment, real estate, etc.) but isn't actually a hard cash expense, just a formal expense. The hard cash expense came at the time that the investment was made, i.e. when the data centre or what have you was actually bought and paid for.

So, the difference between that "virtual" expense and actual cash is one accounting category that free cash can come from. There are others.


Yes, but in the long run if you're depreciating assets and don't have capital costs to buy new assets, you end up running out of assets.


Forever seems a bit long. But as long as Amazon feels it can reinvest above some threshold, it is prudent to continue investing instead of making profits.




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