How does the parimutuel betting work? If I bet now, am I guaranteed the "Betting X Pays Out" amount if I am right, or does that change with more bets on either side?
Parimutuel betting is where all the bets are placed in a pool and when the pool closes we then distribute the winnings amongst the bets. [1] In fact, this is how a lot of horse racing works
This means you are not guarranteed betting X pays out Y. And this does change as bets are made on either side. And so one may think, why not just bet the last minute? House fees are initially 0% at 6 AM (PDT) but roll up linearly to 20% by 6 PM (PDT). This is to encourage betting early and discourage bet sniping at the last minute. [2]
Having said that, we do plan to move towards a floating model, more similar to the futures market as we gain transaction volume.
Current prediction targets are set by us. And bettor bet on either sides. As we gain liquidity and transaction volumes are increased, we plan to then turn this into a real time exchange so that the transactions are settled real time and we essentially have a moving prediction target.
In fact, this how we got our name at future representing futures market and block representing bit coin. :p
From the 'How It Works' page [1] - " During the betting round, payout odds will change depending on how many BTCs are placed on either side at any given time. Payout odds are finalized once the betting round closes."
