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Well...

First of all, the fact that this promotion earned miles which could qualify for some type of frequent-flyer status (elite-qualifying miles, or EQMs, to use the jargon) was basically the dumbest thing ever. And EQMs these days are difficult to come by through means other than actually buying a ticket and getting on the plane; typically, only promotions which will actually earn money for the airline can earn EQMs, and even those will have strict caps on them (I have a US Airways club membership and credit card, for example, and IIRC I can't pick up more than about 15k EQMs/year from the combination of them).

That by itself gives a lot more flexibility in dealing with "abuse" of promotions, since non-qualifying miles are only useful to be redeemed for travel. And there are endless ways to cap that:

* Blackout dates to avoid too many "free" seats during peak paid-travel times of the year.

* Dynamic fare-bucket management, allowing the number of redeemable seats on any given flight to be adjusted up or down on the fly, along with confusing schedules for when the mileage-redeemable fare classes open for booking.

* Limiting availability of redeemable seats on alliance partners, making it impractical or impossible to plan longer itineraries as mileage awards.

* Fees for mileage redemption, ranging from simple processing fees up to things like British Airways' stupendous "fuel surcharge" (which can make a "free" business- or first-class ticket cost roughly as much actual cash as a fully-paid economy-class fare).

etc., etc.

And the trend now is toward revenue-based status programs, where qualifying for frequent-flyer status requires not just a minimum number of miles but also a certain minimum number of actual dollars spent, on that specific airline's flights. That eliminates the more lucrative type of mileage-run since low-cost but high-mileage itineraries no longer help with reaching status.

More generally, though, I think the airlines have moved toward no longer considering "frequent flyers" as important as they once did. Frequent business travelers are relevant, of course, but the strong preference is for the types of folks whose corporate travel department just pays the fare the airline asks for, rather than people who spend hours on travel-search sites trying to find the optimal combo of high mileage/low fare.




United, starting next year, has also added a minimum dollar amount to their status levels. Based on a quick perusal, it doesn't appear as if the dollar levels should affect most people who are buying tickets at more or less "normal" rates but it's a further protection against people gaming the system in any way.


Spot on.

The development of the Flagship Lounges (based on revenue generation, as opposed to status) by American is strong proof of your thesis.


Or look at Lufthansa's investment in its first-class terminal at FRA, and in the 747-8. They like other things about that plane, but they especially like the fact that it has room for more premium seats, and Lufthansa's image right now is that of Europe's premium airline.

Not sure whether AA can match that for the US -- especially depending on the merger -- but they seem to be heading in that direction, certainly.




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