Well, it's possible that the model of selling an OS to phone manufacturers has been destroyed by Google giving an OS to manufacturers as a loss-leader.
There's nothing inevitable about that though. It only works if the freebie is sufficiently attractive. For example being free hasn't helped Linux succeed on the desktop, despite it's strong position in the server space.
This can change with the open web as software and services are moving to webapps and apis, BUT asically , Linux lacks of attractive software ,services and business providing services , for the public and businesses. And no , Open Office is not a replacement for MS office, nor Gimp can replace Photoshop for professionals.
Linux is not hard to learn, has great guis and works on most of the hardware.
There is potential but all the services are not there yet. Android is valuable because of all the service intergration it offers, not because it is *nix based , same with IOS.
