First of all, this launch was not a failure, full stop.
I don't know what your background in statistics is, but I'm impressed that you're able to deduce the details of a such a complicated, stochastic process, from only 8 observations, and are willing to extrapolate your predictions for 8 times as many more.
And for someone who loves to comment negatively on SpaceX/Tesla posts, maybe you could spend 5 minutes looking at their Wikipedia pages and see that yes, there have been failures (i.e. unable to achieve stated mission goals and sometimes destroying payloads).
The mission wasn't a failure, but a major component failed in a way that is very concerning. There is a lot of work to be done before a sane human being will get in one of those, let alone approach the safety record of aircraft that Musk is so fond of alluding to.
I am, and of course it is concerning - the engine shut down and debris was strewn about. Do the math on the failure rates. Unless things are dramatically improved (the goal of course), these things are just not safe for people outside of the dare-devil set. That's not a knock against Space X - this is hard stuff. It is a slight knock against Musk's over-the-top marketing that has us on Mars in 15 years, which, in my opinion, is unrealistic.
I don't know what your background in statistics is, but I'm impressed that you're able to deduce the details of a such a complicated, stochastic process, from only 8 observations, and are willing to extrapolate your predictions for 8 times as many more.
And for someone who loves to comment negatively on SpaceX/Tesla posts, maybe you could spend 5 minutes looking at their Wikipedia pages and see that yes, there have been failures (i.e. unable to achieve stated mission goals and sometimes destroying payloads).