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As claimed, light reading confirms this observation to be data not anecdata.

"NY's COVID unemployment fraud topped $11B, partly due to system failures..."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nys-covid-unemployment-fraud-topp...



Look at more recent data. https://www.osc.ny.gov/files/state-agencies/audits/pdf/sga-2...

It looks like fraud rate was typically 5-10%, which might be high, might be "fine". In 2020-21 and 21-22 fraud rate jumped way up to 20%, which is obviously way too high.

But in 2023-24 fraud rate is back down below 10%. We don't have 24-25 data yet, but it looks to me like we had a couple of unusual years during the pandemic, but audit controls seem to have reigned a lot of that back in.

I'd say, evaluate this year's data and then decide if this was a blip or not, then revise your mental model with data.




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