There is a group of wealthy individuals who have bought in to the idea that the singularity (AIs improving themselves faster than humans can) is months away. Whoever gets there first will get compound growth first, and no one will be able to catch up.
If you do not believe this narrative, then your .com era comment is a pretty good analysis.
> There is a group of wealthy individuals who have bought in to the idea that the singularity is months away.
My question is "how many months need to pass until they realize it isn't months away?"
What, it used to be 2025? Then 2027? Now 2030? I know these are not all the same people but there are trends of to keep pushing it back. I guess Elon has been saying full self-driving is a year away since 2016 so maybe this belief can sustain itself for quite some time.
So my second question is: does the expectation of achievements being so close lengthen the time to make such achievements?
I don't think it is insane to think it could. If you think it is really close you'd underestimate the size of certain problems. Claim people are making mountains out of molehills. So you put efforts elsewhere, only to find that those things weren't molehills after all.
Predictions are hard and I think a lot of people confuse critiques with lack of motivation. Some people do find flaws and use them as excuses to claim everything is fruitless. But I think most people that find flaws are doing so in an effort to actually push things forward. I mean isn't that the job of any engineer or scientist? You can't solve problems if you can't identify problems. Triaging and prioritizing problems is a whole other mess, but it is harder to do when you're working at the edge of known knowledge. Little details are often not so little.
> My question is "how many months need to pass until they realize it isn't months away?"
It's going to persist until shareholders punish them for it. My guess is it's going to be some near-random-trigger, such as a little-known AI company declaring bankruptcy, but becoming widely reported. Suddenly, investing in AI with no roadmap to profitability will become unfashionable, budget cuts, down-rounds, bankruptcies and consolidation will follow. But there's no telling when this will be, as there's elite convergence to keep the hype going for now.
Indeed, this will continue as long as the market allows it to. There is a well known quote about how long markets can stay irrational, but I would like to remind where we are right now:
Telco capex was $100 billion at the peak of the IT bubble, give or take. There's going to be $400 billion investments in AI in 2025.
why we acting like this group wealthy individuals don't know what happening???
they know it may be or not gonna happen because months its ridiculous, but they still need to do it anyway since if you not gonna ride it, you are gonna miss the wave
stock market has not been rational since??? forever??? like stop pumping and dumping happen all the time
If you do not believe this narrative, then your .com era comment is a pretty good analysis.