Both sides are not equally wrong, clearly. Until yesterday prediction markets we... | Hacker News

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		rafaelero 32 days ago \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: OpenAI claims gold-medal performance at IMO 2025 Both sides are not equally wrong, clearly. Until yesterday prediction markets were saying the probability of an AI getting a gold medal in IMO in 2025 was <20%. So clearly we should be more hyped, not less.

isaacremuant 32 days ago [–]

Prediction markets are companies and people trying to make money on volatility. Who cares? Why do people treat them as some prescient being?

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