What does that matter? We're talking trifectas here, not supermajorities. The filibuster is a cute remnant of "decorum." It's a vestigial rule which will disappear when too inconvenient. (Fun question with not-so-fun answers: why isn't the filibuster gone already?)
I don't think this tells us much. The present distribution of supporters is rather unique in how strongly it correlates with population density, which means that Dems are going to have a major structural handicap in Senate. I don't think there was ever anything similar historically. And it won't change unless and until the coalitions change, which, sure, will happen eventually - but then it'll be a completely different party under the same brand, so why would Republicans today care about that new party's difficulties?
in American politics, 18 months definitely counts as an "anytime soon".
In the 2026 senate election, the Dems could absolutely flip Maine, North Carolina, and two others; maybe Alaska and Ohio.
If Elon Musk makes good on his threat to try to take out sitting GOP senators, that splitting of the vote could mean the Dems pick up a few more as well.
Because I don't think it's vestigial, I think it's serving an important function of governance that never made it into the official
rules but is nonetheless necessary as a stabilizing effect. It doesn't have to be the filibuster but something ought to provide the effect. It should be easier to block legislation than to pass it. It wouldn't be a good thing if you could have huge policy swings when a 51-49 becomes 49-51. Being able to, with effort, demand specific pieces of legislation reach a higher bar biases us toward the status quo.
