You may be right. The fact is that Falcon 9 was aimed straight at a huge market. So far SpaceX has been brilliantly successful when it has focused on immediate commercial markets.
When it comes to things like space telescopes, a cheap 100 tons to LEO would change the paradigm of how things are developed completely. When it comes to deep space missions that are a one way trip it’s not clear Starship does better than something like the SLS which was cost optimized (see big dumb booster)
The way Starship is being developed, with failure being very much an option, could get to LEO with cost optimizations. Mars is a different animal —- if takes 10 tries to stick a landing you’re going to wait 25 years.
The key problem of deep space colonization or exploitation is the long turnaround time. I did an unpublished study of the problem of turning asteroids into solar sails and concluded that it would be impossible if you disn’t have a physical twin in space near the Earth to teat anything (like fixes to problems) that needs testing. The problem of landing Starship without chopsticks could be tested exhaustively at White Sands, for instance.
Off topic but FYI I tried to sign up for your newsletter from the Ontology2 homepage and got the following error (iOS/Safari):
403 ERROR
The request could not be satisfied.
This distribution is not configured to allow the HTTP request method that was used for this request. The distribution supports only cachable requests. We can't connect to the server for this app or website at this time. There might be too much traffic or a configuration error. Try again later, or contact the app or website owner.
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Request ID: zte7dpy79ryEUqFA5UUBPv4Yl4t6NIL4lyHvs6yqTcdr8wCrXG5xHA==
Thanks for heads up. That site was part of a serious marketing effort when I was trying to start something up and I haven't really thought about it in years. The home page made sense at the exact time I made it but is a bit of a non-sequitor now. I've got to get a lot of my notes published there.
has wonderful illustrations of many of the hundreds of designs they considered before settling on what was to be the Space Shuttle and also talks about late 1980s studies that considered various ways of putting together Space Shuttle parts to make different vehicles (say a big-ass orbiter with more engines, a bigger ET and more SRBs) The hope was that you could reuse the development work that went into Space Shuttle parts but it seemed like anything you made out of Space Shuttle parts was unaffordable no matter what you tried.
You could certainly develop parts that are cheaper on a per unit basis but would it be worth developing them for the number you would make?
The US doesn't really have an attractive answer to getting to the moon or for aggressive deep space missions, Starship doesn't look great. Growing up in the 1980s I read the "Science Fact" columns in Analog Science Fiction magazine and was told that NASA sold us out and we could have had a much more intensive lunar program but really the architecture Apollo used was brilliant and much more achievable than everything else they considered.
> The US doesn't really have an attractive answer to getting to the moon or for aggressive deep space missions, Starship doesn't look great.
Starship is almost an assisted single stage to orbit (ASSTO), the first stage gives rather modest part of total characteristic velocity.
This allows the second stage, Starship, to have a lot of delta-v. I guess it was optimized for Mars operations. Yes, Starship requires refueling for any flight away from Earth orbit, but in exchange for that it packs significant delta-v, so sending large payloads away from Earth - after refueling - becomes easier. That includes Mars, Moon, asteroids, the rest of the Solar system.
When it comes to things like space telescopes, a cheap 100 tons to LEO would change the paradigm of how things are developed completely. When it comes to deep space missions that are a one way trip it’s not clear Starship does better than something like the SLS which was cost optimized (see big dumb booster)
The way Starship is being developed, with failure being very much an option, could get to LEO with cost optimizations. Mars is a different animal —- if takes 10 tries to stick a landing you’re going to wait 25 years.
The key problem of deep space colonization or exploitation is the long turnaround time. I did an unpublished study of the problem of turning asteroids into solar sails and concluded that it would be impossible if you disn’t have a physical twin in space near the Earth to teat anything (like fixes to problems) that needs testing. The problem of landing Starship without chopsticks could be tested exhaustively at White Sands, for instance.