> due to the end of ZIRP and AI productivity gains.
I think you're missing the mark with this analysis.
If you go back to the original dot com bubble it was as much of a hardware bubble as a software one. Same thing with the mobile bubble. The AI bubble we are in has NOTHING to do with productivity and everything to do with hardware. I, as a software engineer am not going to come up with a product that can compete with any of the major players without a massive capital investment.
Meanwhile, the price to play as a software engineer is also driven by high costs. AWS, for better or worse is the model and the go to, and it is NOT cheap by any measure. Its pricing model looks more like the iPhone and less like an efficient market. AWS is MOST of amazons profit margins. It makes tech companies more like franchisee renting the location for their fast food joint and less like independent entities.
The thing is there are TONS of gaps in the software marketplace that need filled. These are companies that are going to be in the 2-3 million a year range and capable of being run by a small team (think ~5 people). Nothing that would appeal to the ycombinator set. You don't need Kubernetes, Kafka, or high performance bleeding edge Rust or massive Autoscaling to run these services. They are never going to get huge, and in fact they offer enough room to start another company of the same scale if one is ambitious and wants to diversify.
Does your average 18 year old know this? No, because most people who write code for a living don't seem to know where these gaps are. Do the math on what it takes to make 100k a year at 10 bucks a month... add a zero for a million, multiply by 3 for "small team"... The number is shockingly small.
Does your average 19 year old have the chops to figure this out? No, because 20 and 30 something laid off software engineers can't seem to figure it out either, even ones with "top degrees".
That doesn't mean that there isn't a path for the sharp young kid to "skip school" and go directly into industry. That path is open source. A history of strong contributions and being smart is going to build a better network than any CS degree ever would/will... However if you can do both, open source and a degree (from anyplace) you're even better off! The same could be said for working at Fedex, Walmart or Costco while you get a cs degree from anyplace and seeking a job in a corporate office after. You have a set of experiences that make you invaluable as a contributor.
Lastly, no one talks about the bad guys. There are plenty of scammers and thieves abusing technical skills who lack formal education and do well for themselves. If we're going to remove all the options and only have a narrow path, will we end up with more criminals and fewer contributors? This is sort of why "Russian hackers" is one of the givens in the industry (crime did/does pay well).
I still think software engineering is a good career choice for a smart kid, but you have to bring more to the table than just code if you want to prosper!
>It makes tech companies more like franchisee renting the location for their fast food joint and less like independent entities.
AWS, the strip mall of the internet. I’ve been saying this for a while. AWS is nice and all but don’t bet your innovation on a service they provide, rather provide a service on their infrastructure that solves your business needs and if AWS retires the service you were using, you can still continue operating.
Unfortunately this means all roads lead to kubernetes - sorry.
I think you're missing the mark with this analysis.
If you go back to the original dot com bubble it was as much of a hardware bubble as a software one. Same thing with the mobile bubble. The AI bubble we are in has NOTHING to do with productivity and everything to do with hardware. I, as a software engineer am not going to come up with a product that can compete with any of the major players without a massive capital investment.
Meanwhile, the price to play as a software engineer is also driven by high costs. AWS, for better or worse is the model and the go to, and it is NOT cheap by any measure. Its pricing model looks more like the iPhone and less like an efficient market. AWS is MOST of amazons profit margins. It makes tech companies more like franchisee renting the location for their fast food joint and less like independent entities.
The thing is there are TONS of gaps in the software marketplace that need filled. These are companies that are going to be in the 2-3 million a year range and capable of being run by a small team (think ~5 people). Nothing that would appeal to the ycombinator set. You don't need Kubernetes, Kafka, or high performance bleeding edge Rust or massive Autoscaling to run these services. They are never going to get huge, and in fact they offer enough room to start another company of the same scale if one is ambitious and wants to diversify.
Does your average 18 year old know this? No, because most people who write code for a living don't seem to know where these gaps are. Do the math on what it takes to make 100k a year at 10 bucks a month... add a zero for a million, multiply by 3 for "small team"... The number is shockingly small.
Does your average 19 year old have the chops to figure this out? No, because 20 and 30 something laid off software engineers can't seem to figure it out either, even ones with "top degrees".
That doesn't mean that there isn't a path for the sharp young kid to "skip school" and go directly into industry. That path is open source. A history of strong contributions and being smart is going to build a better network than any CS degree ever would/will... However if you can do both, open source and a degree (from anyplace) you're even better off! The same could be said for working at Fedex, Walmart or Costco while you get a cs degree from anyplace and seeking a job in a corporate office after. You have a set of experiences that make you invaluable as a contributor.
Lastly, no one talks about the bad guys. There are plenty of scammers and thieves abusing technical skills who lack formal education and do well for themselves. If we're going to remove all the options and only have a narrow path, will we end up with more criminals and fewer contributors? This is sort of why "Russian hackers" is one of the givens in the industry (crime did/does pay well).
I still think software engineering is a good career choice for a smart kid, but you have to bring more to the table than just code if you want to prosper!