This isn't always true. However, in the cases where it was incidental, your hiring manager is likely to be an enthusiastic reference.

The harder case is when your performance is lagging and there is a reduction in force.

And that's definitely an inclusive-or, too.

On the other hand, managers are usually hiring because they failed to do their job competently with the last person in this role.

Brand-new positions are exceedingly rare these days. The market is worse than it's ever been for SWE. There was likely someone they laid off who could have filled it if management wasn't completely incompetent.

This isn't a growth market at the moment. It's a zero-sum game. Everyone's trying to screw each other over as much as possible, and they're lying through their teeth and pretending like it's not. Nobody on either side is sifting through this torrent of AI slop by choice.

The culture is unhealthy but unless you are in a position of power you have to play along.

Disagree. Change can start with anyone. Often its inspiring to see someone buckle the trend and “be real”.

trust me, as someone who is probably genetically incapable of refusing the temptation to "be real", it's exhausting and often doesn't lead to good outcomes. but i'm glad it's possible that i inspire otherwise-quiet people with my bad attitude.

There's that culture of positivity and can-do attitude rearing its head again.

It frequently doesn't work, but even when it doesn't you may still win yourself some unexpected allies who feel the same way. Sometimes those allies are in high places.