But in 2008 we saw the S&P-500 decline 50%. And the Nasdaq-100 30%.
In 2000 the S&P-500 and the Nasdaq-100 both declined 80%.
In dollar terms.
To me it seems that the 2000 dotcom decline and the 2008 financial crisis were once in a decade events and now we are witnessing a once in a lifetime event.
I think anyone who tells you they can make sense of what's happening is being overconfident.
I definitely see where you're coming from expecting a bigger drop, I guess the key thing is that nobody yet is sure what the future of the latest pretty major anouncements looks like, we're currently just seeing bets.
It's possible that tariffs stay high, and US companies like Apple and Nike that depend on global supply chains either relocate, or become outcompeted by foreign companies. In that scenario, I think we'd see a major drop in indexes like the S&P-500, probably out doing the financial crisis in 2008.
It's also possible that the tariffs end up being an overblown bargaining chip, or get walked back as the current US administration realises they are unpopular and loses interest in them. In that case, you'd probably see the S&P take a hit because of the uncertainty, but it's not the same as US companies all finding their supply chains are unworkable.
So I guess the tldr is, shrug, who knows? We're just seeing the market guessing at the moment, the actual economic damage will happen over the next year as things progress more clearly.
But in 2008 we saw the S&P-500 decline 50%. And the Nasdaq-100 30%.
In 2000 the S&P-500 and the Nasdaq-100 both declined 80%.
In dollar terms.
To me it seems that the 2000 dotcom decline and the 2008 financial crisis were once in a decade events and now we are witnessing a once in a lifetime event.