What does he win? More paper? Less glibly - What does a short term tariff on the goods I’m buying from him do that isn’t already baked in to this “long run” scenario you’re envisioning? Say I mark up all the goods I buy from him and the result is that I have to spend more time making goods - why wouldn’t I just do without tariffs, benefit from as many goods as possible, and then start making more goods myself whenever my neighbour stops accepting my paper?