I think SWE's have a serious blind spot here. I use the (rough) analogy of bowling to help illustrate this.
People need to knock over pins in the bowling lane. SWE's are the pro bowlers who can (usually) throw pretty cleans shots to knock over pins. Now bumpers have been invented (LLMs) and regular folks who only have the faintest idea of how to roll a ball are knocking over pins. To the pro's these bumpers are all manner of bad and useless. To the laymen, they are an absolute revolution.
I can tell you, with a straight face, the my (non-tech) company has already forgone hiring a pro bowler in at least four instances now because of these bumpers. Just last week we skipped on a $1k/mo CAD SaaS because Claude was able to build the needed narrow-scope tooling in 10 minutes.
I'm sure a pro could come in and make that python program 3x as fast and use 60% less memory. But the fact of the matter is that we paid Anthropic $20, and spent 10 minutes to get a working niche manufacturing file interpreter/editor/converter.
LLM's are finally bridging the language barrier between computers and humans. Right now the tech exists to make this even more widespread, it's just a matter of time before someone creates a tech-illiterate IDE that users can paste AI generated code into and functioning programs come out the other side. No need to ever even see a terminal or command line. I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't already in the works.
"Hey Google, create an app that allows me to take a picture of a house plant, and then allows me to verbally make entries into a diary about that plant" Sure thing! Give me 3 minutes and the app will be on your homescreen and shareable .apk in your documents folder! I'll also cancel the $9.99/mo app that does the same thing for you. (ok probably not this part but you get the idea.)
You're just describing programming without realizing that having a stochastic and imprecise programming language is a leaky abstraction.
The problem isn't that a "pro bowler" could come in and do something irrelevant for more money. Professional programmers understand that you shouldn't prematurely optimize things like memory or performance in contexts where that doesn't matter. You're ignoring the most important metric which is correctness. When we write a program, we make it correct then we can optimize it if that's actually important.
What's going to happen when you have your non-expert write a program using these tools and it inevitably gets something wrong? Are you prepared to build business process on top of a program whose author can't tell you how it works which might contain bugs? Do you even realize that this is just a recipe for producing mountains and mountains of technical debt?
You seem to believe this is going to put programmers out of a job but you're just explaining why they'll need even more of us in the future when these piles of garbage inevitably cost the company money.
People need to knock over pins in the bowling lane. SWE's are the pro bowlers who can (usually) throw pretty cleans shots to knock over pins. Now bumpers have been invented (LLMs) and regular folks who only have the faintest idea of how to roll a ball are knocking over pins. To the pro's these bumpers are all manner of bad and useless. To the laymen, they are an absolute revolution.
I can tell you, with a straight face, the my (non-tech) company has already forgone hiring a pro bowler in at least four instances now because of these bumpers. Just last week we skipped on a $1k/mo CAD SaaS because Claude was able to build the needed narrow-scope tooling in 10 minutes.
I'm sure a pro could come in and make that python program 3x as fast and use 60% less memory. But the fact of the matter is that we paid Anthropic $20, and spent 10 minutes to get a working niche manufacturing file interpreter/editor/converter.
LLM's are finally bridging the language barrier between computers and humans. Right now the tech exists to make this even more widespread, it's just a matter of time before someone creates a tech-illiterate IDE that users can paste AI generated code into and functioning programs come out the other side. No need to ever even see a terminal or command line. I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't already in the works.
"Hey Google, create an app that allows me to take a picture of a house plant, and then allows me to verbally make entries into a diary about that plant" Sure thing! Give me 3 minutes and the app will be on your homescreen and shareable .apk in your documents folder! I'll also cancel the $9.99/mo app that does the same thing for you. (ok probably not this part but you get the idea.)