The "electric" share here includes plug-in hybrids which, if we're nitpicking, have an internal combustion engine.
Doesn't affect the overall conclusion as even if they were all hybrids the number of cars with internal combustion would still be lower.
I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's swamped by other data inluences.
The conclusion seems pretty shoddy as well, since it relies on a few years worth of data to indicate a permanent shift in purchasing habits, and those years include a global pandemic, supply chain shortages and high inflation/interest.
Really the only conclusion I would make is that combustion-only has peaked, and that much is very clear if you go and shop for a new car. Everything is being hybridised.
I'm inclined to agree with the conclusion from _this_ data being a tad too early.
But, if one digs a bit into the data then one finds that EV sales in nearly all countries had double digit increases. The two major exceptions are Germany and Italy. But on the other hand the Chinese market both grew substantially and there it is more or less a policy goal to boost local manufactures and those are ~all electric. And if China is not going back to gas-powered cars then the conclusion is a pretty safe bet, isn't it?
Having just bought a hybrid minivan, there are few choices and high demand but low supply. ICE only vehicles are in ready supply at all our local dealerships.
That chart used is very low information dense, reducing cars to "electric" and "non-electric", but that's an oversimplification. There's hybrids and plug-in hybrids like you said, hydrogen, pressured air (ok that one never took off), and of course different types of fuel like petrol, diesel and LPG.
I looked into building a compressed air remote controlled boat for fun, to use on a nearby lake where I was worried about putting batteries on something that might sink.
It is monstrously inefficient. A scuba tank might power a vehicle for a half hour tops, though I forget the exact numbers. Scuba tanks are huge and heavy for small hobby vehicles.
I'd love to pick it back up are there other options here?
>I'd love to pick it back up are there other options here?
Higher compression. Scuba is older tech and standardized around relatively low pressures. CNG runs above 3000psi. Paintball guns run air at 4-5000. Carbon fiber tanks are readily available for both as are compressors.
> I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's swamped by other data inluences.
One thing people don't realize is that EVs are going to be SO MASSIVELY CHEAPER than ICE cars that we will see massive changes in behaviour and socioeconomic dynamics in society. I think we will see a day where a new car won't be much more expensive than a new fridge.
What happens when everyone who can afford a fridge can afford a car? And drive it for next to nothing? With car repair basically being a non issue (just throw away and get a new one)?
Some societies are not equipped for that. Roads will need to be repaired much more often (due to EV weight as well). Tire microplastic particles are going to be much bigger problem (but less gas emissions at least). Gas taxes used to pay for road infrastructure in some countries, that doesn't work anymore. Electricity taxes? But then you are taxing people who don't use the roads as much. IoT meters on cars beeping your location to the government (UK actually proposed this)? Battery fire management? Recycling (especially for the batteries)?
Car manufacturing won't be a big industry that matters that much for the overall economy anymore.
Lots of countries where a lot of the population use motorized-scooters/motorcycles will move to use bigger cars. Traffic is going to get much worse everywhere, public transport will become less attractive. Parking demand will skyrocket.
People who already own cars will resist any form of government control to reduce traffic/parking. US car-centric lifestyle will be exported to all of the developing world. If anything the US and Canada are only of the few countries prepared for this new world (the only places where everyone, even poor people, own cars and drive everywhere).
Much simpler than combustion cars and far easier to mass produce. Once it becomes a disposable commodity like smartphones the maintenance supply-chain will be much simpler and cheaper (few issues will be worth fixing instead of just replacing a big chunk of the vehicle or just getting a new one).
Batteries are expensive, but are mostly automated manufacturing. Raw minerals for batteries will become mostly closed-loop in the long-term with recycling (like aluminum). And the prices is going down a lot even without recycling being significant yet.
I imagine you would be able to trade-in your current car and get a big discount for a new one.
Doesn't affect the overall conclusion as even if they were all hybrids the number of cars with internal combustion would still be lower.
I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's swamped by other data inluences.