LATAM will get a lot of remote work if the wages stay lower than the US since they're in better-for-US-company-timezones than India or others overseas. That's what my company is outsourcing to.
Doubtful. Digital nomads, short-term rental tourism, real estate investors (prompted by the former two) are increasing housing costs and CoL in all the popular destinations. Costs in some regions like Barcelona almost got equalized with costs in major US tech hubs. The same is happening in places like Buenos Aires. So its unlikely that the trend in LATAM will continue as it is.
Also, this is very bad for not only the locals as they get gentrified from living in their own city/urban centers (and in some cases even rural zones), but also the local companies: The US and other rich Western companies dump their healthcare and housing costs onto the locals through arbitration while making it harder for local companies to keep up with the CoL increase through wages, therefore increasing their expenses and reducing their competitiveness. And the reduced taxes that the nomads etc pay doesn't help it. (that is, the ones who actually pay).
> The US and other rich Western companies dump their healthcare and housing costs onto the locals [...] And the reduced taxes that the nomads etc pay doesn't help it. (that is, the ones who actually pay).
Most nomads are going to be getting private health insurance. It's true that a lot of them are not paying their taxes, but if you're talking about Latin America that's true for a large portion of the domestic population as well. I looked into relocating to a country in South America a few years ago and had a lawyer tell me to not even worry about filling out the relevant visas because he had clients from China who had been living there for decades with no papers (I opted not to retain his services). The key here is that even if they aren't paying taxes, they are bringing money into the economy and are generally not competing with local laborers. This attitude has started to shift in places like Mexico City because a lot of the expats are not digital nomads but instead run-of-the-mill immigrants competing with the working population for jobs.
> Most nomads are going to be getting private health insurance
Those private health insurances are subsidized by the public healthcare because they piggyback off of the public healthcare system. That's why they are affordable, unlike the US. And as a result, those nomads end up congestion the public healthcare system because the private health insurers also send their own patients to public hospitals for anything serious. Im telling this from a place that is experiencing precisely this.
> It's true that a lot of them are not paying their taxes, but if you're talking about Latin America that's true for a large portion of the domestic population as well
The amount of taxes avoided by the poor majority in such countries don't compare to the taxes avoided by the rich white collars. Nomads earn 2 to 5 times more than the local white collars as well. Even in some European countries.
> The key here is that even if they aren't paying taxes, they are bringing money into the economy
They don't. People think that but neither tourists nor nomads nor short term-renters (whatever the kind) bring money into the economy:
The nomad doesn't buy 10 shoes every month, 2 cars every year, eat out 20 times every day or buy 50 loaves of bread every day. He consumes just like any other human being (obviously), and his consumption does not move the needle of the local economy much.
What nomad's consumption boosts is a few local/luxury shops that cater to the rich or nomads, and maybe one or two local shops or services that they also use. Those few businesses make bank even as other businesses in the same neighborhood rot. And those few businesses that benefit don't buy dozens of employees to make up for the added workload - they hire one or two and everyone works harder and that's it. So what nomads end up doing is enriching a few local, already-well-to-do shop and business owners. On the other side, they cause a 20 to 30% increase in rents (even in Europe), housing prices and significant increases in CoL.
> This attitude has started to shift in places like Mexico City because a lot of the expats are not digital nomads but instead run-of-the-mill immigrants competing with the working population for jobs.
It started changing in Europe too. In places like Barcelona, Madrid, Southern Spain, Portugal, some central European 'bohemian' destinations etc. Mostly because of the sharp gentrification the nomads are causing even for the white collars. But especially the English-speaking foreigner population concentration in some places became way too visible and they started outnumbering the locals. In Barcelona there seems to be a lot of cafes in the city center where the waiters don't know Spanish or Catalan, people having difficulty hearing either language being spoken in the city center etc.
In any case a strong reaction came to being against nomadism and its not looking good.
> Those private health insurances are subsidized by the public healthcare because they piggyback off of the public healthcare system.
Most nomads I know have insurance that is either global or based in their home country. If I had been injured in my host country I would have been required to pay full price for my medical services, which is why I bought insurance in my own country. If you're at the point that you've purchased insurance in the place you are living, are you really a nomad anymore?
> The amount of taxes avoided by the poor majority in such countries don't compare to the taxes avoided by the rich white collars.
Do you have any evidence of this, or are you just speculating? I've read about this with regards to South America and what I took away from it was that the informal economy is largely made up of low wage laborers, not white collar professionals. In either case, this is kind of irrelevant to the discussion because any taxes the nomads pay represent revenues that the host would not otherwise have had. As a nomad you aren't going to be consuming more in services than you're spending unless you're camping in a tent and end up breaking a leg.
> They don't. People think that but neither tourists nor nomads nor short term-renters (whatever the kind) bring money into the economy:
I spent more on rent in 3 months in my host country than most people spend in a year. I ate out at restaurants almost every night I was there, and took taxis every day. These aren't normal consumption patterns where I was living. Your point might hold if you're talking about Europe; but if we accept that it does, we would then have to ask how it's possible for nomads to be driving rents up.
> Those few businesses make bank even as other businesses in the same neighborhood rot.
Does the economy improve or does it not?
> And those few businesses that benefit don't buy dozens of employees to make up for the added workload - they hire one or two and everyone works harder and that's it.
This is pure speculation on your part and there's no compelling reason to think that it occurs.
> Most nomads I know have insurance that is either global or based in their home country.
I don't think any really 'global' insurance exists as it would be unmanageable as it would bankrupt the 'global' firm. All such insurances probably pass through some local subsidiary or intermediary firm. And where I am, all nomads have to buy local private insurance as that is the one that they can legally prove having. And that means they use the public healthcare system when they have anything serious.
> If you're at the point that you've purchased insurance in the place you are living, are you really a nomad anymore?
Purchasing private insurance that you can confirm is obligatory to get DN visa here.
> Do you have any evidence of this, or are you just speculating?
Speculation is unnecessary as numbers are public. The amount of taxes that the nomads pay is at most ~24% even in the popular European spots. That is if they actually pay anything because most of them use the 180 day rule to avoid having to be resident in those countries. If they exit schengen in the 180th day and stay somewhere else for what, some ~3 months, they can reset the duration and stay another 180 days in that country without becoming a resident and paying taxes. Then there are the assholes that stay more than that but dodge taxes by using Delaware corporations, other shell companies etc.
In contrast to this, wherever they cram into, they cause a 20% to 30% rent and housing price increase every year. When you consider that the income of the average nomad is $5000/month according to statistics, even if they actually pay their taxes what they pay amounts to something like $1000 per person/month on average and does not do sh*t to make up for the CoL increase they cause. Especially the rent and housing.
Its bad, really. The intention for the DN visa here was to stimulate the information technology sector. But it ended up as a scheme in which mainly the US companies dump their healthcare and housing costs onto the locals while still getting the labor of the nomad. So it is not the local technology market that is benefiting from this at all. If anything, it is getting harmed because the CoL increase makes the local companies' employees suffer and the companies cant raise salaries to keep up.
> As a nomad you aren't going to be consuming more in services than you're spending unless you're camping in a tent and end up breaking a leg.
Merely the extra load they cause in the public healthcare system would be enough to consume more, even before talking about the CoL and local economic issues above.
> I spent more on rent in 3 months in my host country than most people spend in a year. I ate out at restaurants almost every night I was there, and took taxis every day. These aren't normal consumption patterns where I was living.
Yes, and those raise the CoL. All landlords in your region will now be jacking up prices and will try to rent their spaces to foreigners - which will also bring in the private investment plundererers who will start buying up the local housing to do it themselves instead. There are cases in my country where foreign individuals rent the housing they bought in my country and rent it to nomads without setting foot in the country or any locals getting involved. They pay a pretty meager property tax, and all their income tax goes to their own country because they reside there.
> Does the economy improve or does it not?
Abso-fkin-lutely not. Im in one of the major hotspots, and not even the worst, but people cant afford housing, they don't have jobs and there doesn't seem to be anything that is stimulated. If you don't count American investment corps and 'investor' individuals coming in and starting to scoop entire neighborhoods - which exacerbates the crisis even more.
> This is pure speculation on your part and there's no compelling reason to think that it occurs
That is exactly what we see happening. The economic numbers confirm the same reality. Higher CoL and no change in jobs even in the supposedly boosted 'information technology' sector.
Can you post some listings from both to show what you mean? If you’re comparing the city center of Barcelona to some distant suburban neighborhood that looks like Long Island but is technically part of Queens maybe it’s true, but if you’re comparing like to like I’m pretty confident NYC is still way more expensive.
Yeah, looks like the go to strategy, but I may have to pass on the gold mine and go for the higher payoff of a decent living but a more spiritually fulfilling trade diplomacy
In international trade there's complementary/productive trade, you have gold, we have silver, let's trade. And you also have redundant/substitutive trade, you have soy, we have cheaper soy, buy our soy.
I don't believe from the bottom of my heart in substitutive trade for similar reasons I don't believe in (most) inmigration. We've conquered the americas, now we have to populate it, god won't reward desertors who revert their ancestor's decision by running back to the old continent, and the excuse of "I was born in the wrong hemisphere" is also quite petty, we rolled the dice and this is what we got.
Substitutive trade isn't far from immigration, the poor want to go to the rich countries, and the rich buy the cheap labour. Where is the pride in that? In both sides. Leave your country for another with a different religion, leave your mother your brethren, and serve. Leave a war instead of fighting? Take a 1 hour bus to a fancy neighbourhood to serve coffee and wash dishes. Conversely, you can wash your own dishes, you can use a bottle of water and fill that up before you leave, we don't need a migrant washing our dishes, and we don't need to migrate to wash dishes.
So I'm trying to focus on trade that is not replaceable with local labour, hopefully countries start nailing down remote work and we start locking those behind visas.
And unfortunately india and philipinnes get that productive trade, they can cover night shifts.
We'll find stuff to export. There's not much, as Trump said "they need us more than we need them".
Local entertainment, sports and games will always be there, it's like cybertourism.
there might be an argument for redundant trade as a counterweight to an unbalanced productive export. But I don't think that works long term.
There's also localization services, in language and legal, but those are just costs of exporting really.
Lithium is probably the lesser evil, super extractive, but we gotta pay somehow.
Sorry about the super rant. Lately I've been more using forums as a way to write things that I already had drafted in my mind.
