The US is a great place to have your headquarters and a terrible place to have your not-so-cheap labor.
Their actions will drive prices higher and, indirectly, wage higher. Businesses without a war chest will not be able to keep going and fold, the labor market will collapse.
The rest of the world will trade amongst each other and I suspect to save themselves, some big tech companies will relocate their headquarters.
I think you’re overlooking that the robots require maintenance and facilities which are costlier due to labour costs which will ultimately be passed on to customers.
The US market demand is already depressed. Prices go up, demand will fall further.
Try to impose those prices elsewhere in the world and people will move off of apple products. Apple profits will fall, it will lead to a negative feedback loop.
That could also lead to a depression. I haven't heard a lot of politicians here (Andrew Yang in 2020? does he even count as "a politician"?) with good plans for what to do when automation hits jobs even harder.
“We grew from 10 customers to 100 customers in a year. At this rate we will have 20% of the world’s population in a decade!!!”
The first cohort of customers of any company is always the easiest to obtain with the lowest acquisition cost. You solve the easiest problems first.
This is Cohort Analysis 101. Not to mention Waymo still hasn’t shown to be able to operate in less than ideal weather conditions or proven that the unit economics will make sense or be economical especially taking into account maintenance, or utilization ratios.
It’s been operating safely in each market they’re in. The AI keeps getting better. They have no competition (please don’t bother mentioning Tesla vapor ware). Path to high growth seems pretty sure at this point.
And the markets they are in are low hanging fruit with good weather. I’m not saying Waymo is less safe than human drivers. I am saying that it will only take one fatal accident by any self driving car for people to lose confidence, investigations to start, rollouts to be paused etc. I’m also not saying that is a logical response.
> I am saying that it will only take one fatal accident by any self driving car for people to lose confidence, investigations to start, rollouts to be paused etc.
Uber and Cruise are both great examples of this, but it seems like the effect is mostly localized to the company itself that has the issue.
Uber hit and killed a jaywalking pedestrian, resulting in their self driving tech being sold to Aurora. [0]
Cruise hit a pedestrian that was flung into the cars path that a human driver hit previously. This resulted in GM completely abandoning Cruise and their future seems foggy at best. [1]
Which is very very few markets, and all of them share weather patterns that are very similar.
When Waymo can demonstrate reliably going from Chicago to Ann Harbor in the middle of a snow storm thats when we can start talking about how its good enough.
Sure wouldn’t, and for what it’s worth that’s why the scenario is a great litmus test. If it can do that, it should be able to handle anything else thrown at it
Google also had literally hundreds of failures and Android is not an amazing financial success by any means and Google still ends up paying Apple over $20 billion a year because people with money buy iPhones.
Google is not exactly known for its success rate getting products out of the door that aren’t ad related.
In the phone market. The Motorola acquisition was a major failure and Pixels aren’t taking the world by storm.
The entire “Other bets” haven’t led to any major successes.
There are only two tech companies that have shown any ability to do hardware at scale as mass consumer products in the last 25 years - Apple and Tesla.
This is all intended policy to benefit Trumps super donors. They can then scoop up marketshare and competition for pennies, then lobby to get the tariffs lowered or removed, but the higher prices - that we will be used to paying at the point this all comes together - will not go down.
All else being equal, companies are going to use the source of labor that results in the cheapest product they can produce. No one is forcing companies to move this kind of manufacturing to the United States. A 10% (let me reiterate that: TEN PERCENT) tariff on incoming goods is inflationary, but by very little, and quickly absorbed by companies and consumers. No one is moving their labor supply from China to the US to avoid a ten percent tariff; US labor is more expensive than that, and there are fifty other places around the planet you could find cheap low-skill labor that aren't on Trump's shitlist.
But you won't believe any of that, because you want all this to happen. You're a doomer; doomers and preppers secretly want the doom they predict to happen, even if they won't admit it to themselves.
Your "logic" (masking) conveniently avoids the point I raised: That these tariffs are being enforced to the tune of 10%. That isn't enough to alone justify this level of investment, or relocation of significant production capacity. Obviously, Apple agrees with this, because the investments they're making aren't as far as I can tell a relocation of capacity from China to the United States, but rather greenfield investment in high-skill research and development. Apple has also made significant investment into advanced silicon manufacturing in the United States; something they also did not rely on China for previously.
> The world is a bigger market than USA and just about every other country has cheaper labor and no tariffs.
Have you done zero research into this? The EU imposes a tariff on Chinese EVs. India imposes insane tariffs on all imported electronics. China tariffs Australian wine. Russia tariffs agricultural products from the EU. Brazil tariffs all imported automobiles. The list goes on. Tariffs are everywhere, everyone uses them for something.
The US is a great place to have your headquarters and a terrible place to have your not-so-cheap labor.
Their actions will drive prices higher and, indirectly, wage higher. Businesses without a war chest will not be able to keep going and fold, the labor market will collapse.
The rest of the world will trade amongst each other and I suspect to save themselves, some big tech companies will relocate their headquarters.