> spending doesn't take into account debt payments

Spending is related to debt only inasmuch as it exceeds taxation.

If you increased debt in the past, interest on the debt then becomes a recurring expense. You then have to reduce spending relative to taxes, not only to pay the interest, but to eventually pay down the principal if you ever want to stop paying the interest.

Eh, not necessarily. Inflation will eventually reduce the effective principal amount over time and you would stop feeling the effect of any interest

I’ve seen several reports recently that the interest on our debt will exceed the defense budget within the next couple of years. Is that not accurate?

> several reports recently that the interest on our debt will exceed the defense budget within the next couple of years. Is that not accurate?

This happened, I believe, in FY 2024 [1][2].

We're currently running a 6.5% primary deficit/GDP [3]. With real GDP growing around 2.5% a year [4], that means we need to cut about 4% of GDP, or $1.2tn [5], to stabilise our debt/GDP ratio. That's two Medicaids [6]. (Which would probably trigger a recession.)

[1] https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudg... $842bn

[2] https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/the_baseline_and_inte... $870bn

[3] https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/deficit-tracker/

[4] https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/06/how-much-did-the-us-...

[5] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

[6] https://www.pgpf.org/article/budget-explainer-medicaid/

It already was in 2024 (if you exclude veteran related costs.) Some of the increase is due to the government debt being larger, and some from interest rates rising. (The average interest rate we pay on our debt has doubled in the past 4 years, from 1.59% in 2020 to 3.28% in 2024.)