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Yes, it is happening over the course of many decades, naturally, as machines are updated/replaced as a matter of normal business.

That's a very different thing in terms of switching costs than an immediate switch that demands replacement all at one time.



All the novelty $1 coins since the Sacagawea offer the potential for a gradual shift too. Modern multi-denomination coin mechs are likely to accept them, unlike the Susan B Anthony's that were too close to quarters [1]. Some of them even have a sticker near the coin slot advertising the feature. So if someone has given you a dollar coin in change (probably a government cashier or machine), you might be able to use it in a machine. I couldn't find a well reported number on dollar coin acceptance --- just an undated claim of 30% of machines accepting them according to Vending Market Watch but no link to an article or anything. I did see an article on VMW from 2011 about cash recyclers that allow a machine to take a larger bill and issue change with smaller bills rather than only coins, that featured a quote that resonates with me:

> "Customers have told me firsthand how thrilled they are to receive bills as change instead of dollar coins," said Mike Gallagher, service manager for Coca-Cola Bottling Co. "Sales on those machines have increased, and the technology has been extremely reliable." [2]

[1] I did see one coin mech in the wild that took Anthony dollars; but it was a spendy arcade game and had a dispenser next to it to get the dollar coins you needed from bills or quarters. And there were big signs about it, at the Disneyland StarCade in the 90s.

[2] https://www.vendingmarketwatch.com/technology/article/102518...


There was always a potential, but without a plurality of momentum, they're not going to replace their predecessors. The early 00s was the best chance for this, in the wake of the Susan B Anthony reissuance and the new Sacagawea dollar, when there was a decent amount of public interest, but as it turns out, anything less than 100% acceptance is just not as good as the 100% acceptance of quarters in coin machines, or dollar bills in bill readers. People won't use them if they aren't accepted, and retailers won't accept them if they aren't used.




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