I don't think either platform is going to "win" in the sense of reaching the size and influence of Twitter, but both will hopefully be more resilient than Twitter was.
Yeah, "resilience" is my big concern. After Facebook and Twitter, I'm mostly concerned about a social network getting compromised by a moneyed political interest. Obviously I'm a liberal so I have my political opinion on the interest here, but the point stands for any alignment - I'd rather see something like Mastodon where people can fund and run their own servers that reflect their own values and interests, and then those servers can federate and defederate as is appropriate.
