Foreign policy under Trump will generally be isolationist.
- US out of NATO? Trump will at least threaten that. The larger European countries are currently weak militarily by historical standards. There does not seem to be enough will in Europe to spend at US levels, outside of the countries on the front line, such as Poland and Finland.
- Ukraine war: Heavy US support for Ukraine probably stops. Whether Ukraine surrenders is up to Ukraine.
Ukraine can fight on, but won't win much.
Trump will meet with Putin and will give Putin much of what he asks for.
- Israel's wars: US support continues.
- China vs. Taiwan: Reduced support for Taiwan. China starts treating the area inside the nine lines as their own lake, and no US Navy craft go there. Pressure on Taiwan increases. China will attempt to get Taiwan to cave without actually invading. A blockade is possible.
- Trade with China: heavy protectionism on the US side. Few other countries will go along. Overall, China's influence in the world will increase.
- China's influence in South America will continue to increase. This isn't noticed much in the US, but it's big. South America now trades more with China than with the US. China controls about 40 ports in South America. The US had military bases around the world. China builds ports.
The EU would have to make some very serious budgeting changes if they wanted to fill that void. A bunch of EU politicians would need to make the case for deep budget cuts, tax increases, war bonds, or some combination of those.
I just want to mention that EU has around €200 billion in frozen Russian assets. On top of that the various countries will contribute.
Even if it turned out that Trump has some backroom deal with Putin, and pushes hard for Ukraine to surrender - he'd be an absolute fool to not take that kind of money, and sell arms to European allies, and Ukraine.
That's money in the pocket for the US arms industry.
It's around 1 year worth of aid. Since the beginning of the invasion (February 2022) Ukraine has received approximately €400 billion in aid.
The silver lining is that the war costs much more to Russia - and that economic damage is accelerating as long as the sanctions are up. Russian interest rates being over 20% is a sign that things are starting to turn dire.
Whatever booming economy they're reporting, is a economy cannibalizing itself.
So, if Ukraine has the means to keep fighting, that will weaken Russia financially.
Why don't they? Isolationist USA is not ideal, but USA spending way more defending Ukraine than the combined EU is also stupid. Russia is literally knocking on their doorsteps, they should be the first to push back.
I really hope too. If Taiwan falls, what message does it send to Japan, South Korea, the Philippines? Are the US willing to lose their influence there and give a free pass to China?
This tracks with some of the models we have been dealing with in the defense industry.
Big reason why a lot of our national security types did not want to see Trump reelected.
I don’t think your average US citizen realizes how expensive and difficult things are going to get as US global influence eventually hits an “unrecoverable dive”
There are American right-wing commentators who are praising "de-dollarization" and the rise of BRICS. It's a combination of having half your lifesavings in crypto and letting anti-LGBT/immigrant identity politics override the geopolitical interests of your own country.
US global influence, at least militarily, hit an all-time low when Biden twice said to Iran "don't", then Iran did, and Biden did not respond. Decades of investing in a Navy that is literally one of the most expensive enterprises in human history have been eroded as Biden demonstrated to the US's enemies that American deterrence means literally nothing.
I see, and yes I agree. I should have said "all time low since the second world war". I did carefully state "at least militarily".
The point is that US enemies are now openly mocking the US for stating "don't" so blazingly, then doing nothing. They see that the US will not use real force, so they openly defy the US now.
Biden's Chips Act attempts to onshore chip production, arguably so that we wouldn't have to protect Taiwan in the future (or mitigate against it's eventual capture). However, were Trump to allow China to take Taiwan it would make him look incredibly weak - he won't do that.
I doubt we see the same isolationism w.r.t. China, who remain Trump's main bogeyman (other than immigrants). The policy will probably make less sense, since as you mentioned his tariffs and transactional diplomacy may confound US efforts to build an anti-China alliance in the Pacific.
It would probably be a poor move for China to blockade Taiwan (an act of war). If the US decides to intervene, it would be very painful for China without a pre-emptive strike on US bases in the region. For all the talk of Trump as an anti-war candidate, he didn't seem to say no to many military strikes as POTUS, and this hypothetical would represent the US' best possible entry into a war over Taiwan.
China has repeatedly demonstrated 2 things WRT Taiwan. They're patient and they're serious about their red lines.
I can't recall a single instance where China announced anything about Taiwan that wasn't reactive. They just keep repeating the "one China" policy.
Their official stance is that there's no need to invade Taiwan because Taiwan is already part of China and they reserve the right to use force to enforce their territorial integrity.
The practical manifestation of that policy has been that China and the US both get to pretend that their view on Taiwan is the reality and nobody will do anything if the other side doesn't rock the boat.
Their red line is a formal declaration of independence by Taiwan. As near as I can tell, all but one of their "military exercises" has been in response to actions that get close to that line in diplomatic terms https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/10/chinas-military-exercises-a...
During many of those exercises effectively blockaded Taiwan. They did that for a week after Pelosi's visit and they experienced no pain in response.
I draw 3 conclusions from these observations:
1) China will not invade Taiwan without some external stimulus
2) China is prepared to blockade Taiwan in the event of any attempts at secession
3) China has established that secessionist behavior is casus belli for a blockade in the eyes of the international community
This means US soldiers dying in Iran if the escalation continues. I’d hardly call that “generally isolationist”.
Israel has no chance of fighting Iran without US troops. Trump received a hefty amount of Zionist money this time around (Bill Ackman swinging right is crazy) and is cozy with pompeo et al. The writing is on the wall.
- US out of NATO? Trump will at least threaten that. The larger European countries are currently weak militarily by historical standards. There does not seem to be enough will in Europe to spend at US levels, outside of the countries on the front line, such as Poland and Finland.
- Ukraine war: Heavy US support for Ukraine probably stops. Whether Ukraine surrenders is up to Ukraine. Ukraine can fight on, but won't win much. Trump will meet with Putin and will give Putin much of what he asks for.
- Israel's wars: US support continues.
- China vs. Taiwan: Reduced support for Taiwan. China starts treating the area inside the nine lines as their own lake, and no US Navy craft go there. Pressure on Taiwan increases. China will attempt to get Taiwan to cave without actually invading. A blockade is possible.
- Trade with China: heavy protectionism on the US side. Few other countries will go along. Overall, China's influence in the world will increase.
- China's influence in South America will continue to increase. This isn't noticed much in the US, but it's big. South America now trades more with China than with the US. China controls about 40 ports in South America. The US had military bases around the world. China builds ports.