> His choice to set sail for the New World on August 2, 1492, the exact date ordained for the expulsion of Jews from Spain does suggest he may have not converted yet.
This is one of the least compelling pieces of evidence: one doesn’t set out for a cross-oceanic voyage on a whim. He had sponsorship from the Spanish crown and lobbied and prepared for years for the journey. His journey was formally sanctioned by the the royal family in April of the year he left.
Conversos and Moriscos were overrepresented among the early Spanish settlers [0].
Same story in Portuguese territories as well.
An exodus of Sephardim and Muslims was a win-win for the Spanish crown - they'd lose (in their eyes) a potential 5th column in their competition against the Ottoman Empire as well as have manpower to nominally stake their claim in the New World.
At the time, the Spanish were completely unaware that Columbus would find a land that could be settled. The goal of the expedition was finding a route to East Asia to establish trade with those known-to-be-inhabited areas. Colonization was a pivot after Columbus did not find Asia.
Also colonization didn't start in earnest until several decades later. For a generation or two the exploitation of the Americas was largely extractive.
This is one of the least compelling pieces of evidence: one doesn’t set out for a cross-oceanic voyage on a whim. He had sponsorship from the Spanish crown and lobbied and prepared for years for the journey. His journey was formally sanctioned by the the royal family in April of the year he left.