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ceejayoz · 2024-09-17T19:38:38 1726601918

> It's easy to sit online and make bold and vague claims like there will be armed escalation in retaliation.

I mean, that's the pretty standard response in this conflict. Permanent tit-for-tat, back-and-forth, for decades/millennia depending on how broadly you count things. For a concrete example, Iran's April strikes.

> What do you think constitutes a major escalation?

Terror attacks on Israeli assets abroad - I'd be keeping embassies/consulates on alert - and rocket strikes against Israel. At least enough to try to save face, although the Iranian strikes offer a "good luck" for that.

> I would happily bet against a ground invasion.

By Hezbollah? Well, yeah.

s1artibartfast · 2024-09-17T19:59:16 1726603156

[flagged]

ceejayoz · 2024-09-17T21:06:49 1726607209

I think Netanyahu's champing at the bit for escalation, and there's plenty of precedent for relatively small things triggering big responses.

As a concrete example, the last big Israel-Lebanon war resulted from the capture of two Israeli soldiers in a border raid; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War

s1artibartfast · 2024-09-17T22:27:57 1726612077

Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? I agree that that could be an escalation given the context and history. That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. It's hard to imagine Israel tolerating it imperfect ceasefire while Hezbollah continues to arm, given how that worked out with Hamas

I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.

talldayo · 2024-09-18T19:44:57 1726688697

> Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners?

They sure don't seem motivated to stop, if Israel's pre-planned response is still fratricide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal_Directive

s1artibartfast · 2024-09-19T07:14:43 1726730083

if anything, Israel seems overly concerned with prisoner recovery, given the current situation in gaza and the Lebanon war

ceejayoz · 2024-09-18T13:27:39 1726666059

> Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners?

It's certainly part of the playbook, if they can manage some captures. Soft targets seem a lot more likely, though.

> That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like.

This conflict is creating the next generation of orphaned rage-filled extremists. Peace is a very, very distant goal at this point.

> I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.

I very much disagree. Netanyahu is on a treadmill he can't ever let stop; ending the emergency means having to properly face his long-delayed criminal proceedings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu).