A 26% productivity increase is... pretty big? There is obviously some noise in the data. But given copilots are pretty new pieces of tech, it does not seem impossible that there could be at least a 2x productivity growth available within the next 6-8 years. Given that SWE work is not particularly differentiated from CAD and similar types of knowledge work... is it really that unreasonable that AI could double the productivity of knowledge workers by 2030?

That's certainly worth a few trillion dollars in economic growth.