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jimmont
4 months ago
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Bosses Are Finding Ways to Pay Workers Less
prelude to recession, as visible in Sahm rule trends at
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=456
as well as when the 10 2 yield curve approaches +0.5
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
with near term interest rate cuts, along with other indicators; guessing arrives early next year;
jimmont
4 months ago
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the article is consistent with sticky cpi, as can be seen in the transient and sticky cpi and wage tracking, in fact we appear to be in deflationary territory but I'm not an economist so my interpretation might be off
https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/stickyp...
https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker
Izkata
4 months ago
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Not a prelude, the Sahm rule is an indicator a recession has already begun.
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