But even my dumb self makes the correlation that in 2020/2021, we handed out free money to keep people afloat (a very good thing), and then immediately following there was a surge in inflation.
So I guess I don't understand, how do you give out free money without devaluing the currency? Am I making an incorrect correlation between the stimulus checks and the subsequent inflation? Again, I don't know anything about this topic and I think the stimulus checks were a good idea that kept a lot of people afloat, but was that not the cause of the subsequent inflation?
The difference is that money was created then for that purpose. In an ideal universal basic income, the money comes from taxes; not just printed on the spot. This to my (probably base and naive understanding of economics) would not result inflation, because it would be a re-circulation/flow of tax money, rather than injecting new money to the economy.
Ding ding ding. We have a winner. It also really matters which people get the money. For example: we printed gazillions of dollars after the 2008 financial crisis, but "inflation" was super low that whole time. What happened? We gave that money to banks and owners of financial assets, so the stuff that they buy more than others was what got inflated aka houses and startup equity (yes, your startup equity!) and the stock market and yachts and stuff. In 2020 we gave a bunch of money either directly to every individual or to their bosses to give to them, so a different set of things got inflated. What do wage workers buy more of with their money? Groceries et al. Home rental prices are through the roof, but home purchase prices are not. My guess is we see home price deflation (or at least lower-than-otherwise inflation) unless interest rates start getting cut again, which they will probably do because the people that get to influence and make that decision all benefit financially or politically from cutting those rates, but I digress.
So my (old, bachelors) degree in econ gives me a story that makes sense, but surely a more recent or grad-level or professional economist can probably point out all the ways I'm deluded. One of my physics teachers once told me that every year they start by telling you that everything you learned last year is a gross oversimplification and now they're going to teach you the way it "really" works.
The stimulus checks weren't the only thing we did, however. We did a lot of quantitative easing to keep the stock markets from crashing, and I would blame that first.
The stimulus checks were too small to move the needle any appreciable way. It was basically a larger than usual tax return. Having like $2500 extra isn’t why goods went up so much in price. That was from supply chain disruption.
The stimulus checks kicked off inflation. But inflation should have been limited to the amount of money injected in the economy. We ended up seeing inflation exceeding the amount of money injected.
Hidden in Covid was a massive decline in labor force productivity and participation - the lion's share coming from baby boomers retiring during this time. So it's no longer about the amount of money, but the shrinking pile of stuff it is chasing after.
> But inflation should have been limited to the amount of money injected in the economy.
I'm curious to hear more about why that would be the case. Money swaps hands constantly and we have explicit ways that a single dollar can become many multiples of itself (aka you get a dollar, you put it in a bank, the bank lends me 90 cents, I put it in a different bank, they lend you 81 cents, one of us gets another loan secured by our assets, etc, etc, etc, now how many dollars are there?).
What you are describing is referred to as the "velocity of money" - how many times the same dollar changes hands, which there is a rough approximation baked into the monetary supply analysis - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money
But even my dumb self makes the correlation that in 2020/2021, we handed out free money to keep people afloat (a very good thing), and then immediately following there was a surge in inflation.
So I guess I don't understand, how do you give out free money without devaluing the currency? Am I making an incorrect correlation between the stimulus checks and the subsequent inflation? Again, I don't know anything about this topic and I think the stimulus checks were a good idea that kept a lot of people afloat, but was that not the cause of the subsequent inflation?