I don't know if I agree - but I'm open to being wrong. I can't recall many scenarios where I thought someone was a strong fit at 3 months but a terrible fit at 12 months. I can probably think of a couple of scenarios for 3 months and 6 months, especially with slower time to value roles like leadership positions.
Right now 3 months is within my risk tolerance - and there is another side to the cliff that folks don't talk about too often, pre-cliff people will generally be less transparent with negative feedback for fear of being fired before the cliff hits. I'm ok with giving up a bit of equity and polluting the cap table if it increases transparency faster. Maybe the lower risk bet would be a 6 month cliff but I believe 12 months is too long to hold the equity hostage.
Right now 3 months is within my risk tolerance - and there is another side to the cliff that folks don't talk about too often, pre-cliff people will generally be less transparent with negative feedback for fear of being fired before the cliff hits. I'm ok with giving up a bit of equity and polluting the cap table if it increases transparency faster. Maybe the lower risk bet would be a 6 month cliff but I believe 12 months is too long to hold the equity hostage.