Some recent figures from the IEA suggested that electric 2 and 3 wheelers were currently displacing more oil demand than electric cars.
Almost all the stories seem to pitch this as a battle between the two camps, when I feel the obvious conclusion is that they'll accelerate each other as they both make people comfortable and familiar with electric motors and their various benefits (lower noise, pollution, running costs , oil imports etc.)
They also pair well with electric busses and trains for last mile transport of people and electric trucks for last mile delivery of goods.
Electric cars are a viable product because they are a direct replacement for the kinds of cars people in the developed world have been driving for decades. But, in order to be that direct 1:1 replacement they have to be heavy and expensive because they have a big battery.
This is both another evolutionary path for EVs and it shows that EVs can be lighter, cheaper, and have a different sweet spot than electric cars.
> Electric cars are a viable product because they are a direct replacement for the kinds of cars people in the developed world have been driving for decades.
Which may not matter much. People care about getting from A to B, quick & affordable.
With big cities getting more crowded (and thus, traffic jams & parking space at a premium), smaller 2- or 3-wheel electric vehicles have a leg up vs. full sized cars. Enough so that they replace [gasoline/diesel powered cars] faster than electric cars do.
Purchase / maintanance costs, tax incentives etc also work in favor of these smaller / lighter vehicles.
I have high hopes for e-bikes displacing a lot of car trips. They solve almost all bike usability issues for all types of riders: Aero isn't a concern so you can have have an upright riding position. 10-15 kilos of groceries is easily accommodated. Hills are no problem. Alloy frames are cheap to make. Wheels can be very sturdy. Tires can have run-flat inserts. Losing momentum at stoplights isn't a problem. Outside of places where winter is long and snowy, e-bikes can be ideal.
Speaking from my UK perspective - an ebike would entirely replace my car for nearly all of my travelling needs, except that it's impossible to leave it safely in any public space - bicycle theft is absolutely rampant and prosecution is nearly zero, an expensive bike will be stolen, it's just a question of when not if.
It's just a very solid obstacle to this becoming a major way of travelling unless something is done about bike theft.
Given that motorcycle theft is also rampant and thieves have no issue moving a 200kg motorbike onto a van or a trailer, I'd assume it's not going to be a problem. But admittedly I don't know if cargo bikes and similar are also commonly stolen.
The issue in India is that bicycles (and to a lesser extent motorcycles) are a death wish. Plenty used, because also cheap. But I’ve personally seen several seriously nasty accidents that would not have hurt anyone even with the minimal protection that an auto rickshaw provides.
Also, women tend to get groped more on bicycles/bikes, and weather is a big problem. The shade on an auto rickshaw in Hyderabad, or when it rains in Bangalore are pretty handy.
The trade off is either speed or safety - often both. Light EVs tend to still go too fast for safe operation - they are still heavy and fast enough to kill a lot of people. Heavy cars use a lot of that extra weight to make them safer for those inside.
Almost all the stories seem to pitch this as a battle between the two camps, when I feel the obvious conclusion is that they'll accelerate each other as they both make people comfortable and familiar with electric motors and their various benefits (lower noise, pollution, running costs , oil imports etc.)
They also pair well with electric busses and trains for last mile transport of people and electric trucks for last mile delivery of goods.