I certainly would not count out Google's engineering talent. But all the technical expertise in the world won't matter when the leadership is incompetent and dysfunctional. Rolling out a new product takes vision, and it means taking some risks. This is diametrically opposed to how Google operates today. Gemini could be years ahead of ChatGPT (and maybe it is now, if it weren't neutered), but Google's current leadership would have no idea what to do with it.

Google has the technical resources to become a major player here, maybe even the dominant player. But it won't happen under current management. I won't count out Google entirely, and there's still time for the company to be saved. It starts with new leadership.