Here is my prediction of how this will play out for the entertainment industry in the coming decades:
Phase 1 (we are here now): While generative AI is not good enough to directly produce parts of the final product, it can already be used to quickly prototype styles, stories, designs, moods, etc. A good chunk of the unnamed behind-the-scenes-people will loose their job.
Phase 2: While generative AI is still expensive, the output quality is sufficient to directly produce parts of / the entire final product. Big production outlets will use it to produce AAA titles and blockbusters. Even actors, directors and other high publicity positions will be replaced.
Phase 3: The production cost will sink further until it becomes attainable by smaller studios and indie productions. The already fierce markets will be completely flooded with more and more quantity over quality. Advertisement will not be pre-produced and cut into videos anymore but become very subtle product placements, impossible for ad-blockers to strip from the product.
Phase 4: Once the production cost falls below the price of one copy of the product, we will get completely customized entertainment products tailored to our personal taste. Online communities will emerge which craft skeletons / templates which then are filled out by the personal parameter sets of the consumers. That way you can still share the experience with friends even though everybody experiences a different variation.
Phase 5: As consumers do not hit any production limits any more (e.g. binge watch their favorite series ad infinitum) and the product becomes optimized to be maximally addictive by measuring their reaction to it, it will become impossible for most human beings to resist. The entertainment mania will reach its peak and social isolation, health issues and economic factors will bring down the human reproduction rate to basically zero.
Phase 6: Human civilization collapsed within one or two generations and the only survivors will be extremely technology-adverse people by selection. AGI might have happened in the meantime but did not have the time to gracefully take over and remodel the human infrastructure to become self sufficient. Instead a strict religion will rule the lands and the dark ages begin anew.
Note that none of this is new, it is just the continuation and intensification of already existing trends. This is also not AGI doomerism as it does not involve a malicious AGI gone rouge or anything like that. It is simply what happens when human nature meets powerful technology.
TLDR: While I love the technology I can only see very negative long-term outcomes from this.
Phase 1 (we are here now): While generative AI is not good enough to directly produce parts of the final product, it can already be used to quickly prototype styles, stories, designs, moods, etc. A good chunk of the unnamed behind-the-scenes-people will loose their job.
Phase 2: While generative AI is still expensive, the output quality is sufficient to directly produce parts of / the entire final product. Big production outlets will use it to produce AAA titles and blockbusters. Even actors, directors and other high publicity positions will be replaced.
Phase 3: The production cost will sink further until it becomes attainable by smaller studios and indie productions. The already fierce markets will be completely flooded with more and more quantity over quality. Advertisement will not be pre-produced and cut into videos anymore but become very subtle product placements, impossible for ad-blockers to strip from the product.
Phase 4: Once the production cost falls below the price of one copy of the product, we will get completely customized entertainment products tailored to our personal taste. Online communities will emerge which craft skeletons / templates which then are filled out by the personal parameter sets of the consumers. That way you can still share the experience with friends even though everybody experiences a different variation.
Phase 5: As consumers do not hit any production limits any more (e.g. binge watch their favorite series ad infinitum) and the product becomes optimized to be maximally addictive by measuring their reaction to it, it will become impossible for most human beings to resist. The entertainment mania will reach its peak and social isolation, health issues and economic factors will bring down the human reproduction rate to basically zero.
Phase 6: Human civilization collapsed within one or two generations and the only survivors will be extremely technology-adverse people by selection. AGI might have happened in the meantime but did not have the time to gracefully take over and remodel the human infrastructure to become self sufficient. Instead a strict religion will rule the lands and the dark ages begin anew.
Note that none of this is new, it is just the continuation and intensification of already existing trends. This is also not AGI doomerism as it does not involve a malicious AGI gone rouge or anything like that. It is simply what happens when human nature meets powerful technology.
TLDR: While I love the technology I can only see very negative long-term outcomes from this.