I think this analysis is flawed. New technologies are usually bad at substituting for things that already exist. It's 100% true this will not substitute for the existing genre of film and video.
New technologies change the economics of how we satisfy our needs.
When search engines became good, many pundits confidently predicted Google would never replace librarians or libraries. It didn't. It shifted our relationship to knowledge; instead of having to employ an expert in looking things up, we all had to become experts at sifting through a flood of info.
When the cost of producing art-directed and realistic video goes to zero it's hard to predict what's going to happen. Obviously the era of video = veracity is now over. And you can get the equivalent of Martin Scorsese and a million dollar budget to do the video instructions for a hair dryer. Instead of hunting for a gif to express how you feel, captured from an existing TV show or something, you could create a scene on the fly and attach it to a text message. Or maybe you dispense with text messages altogether. Maybe text is only for talking to computers now.
My personal prediction is that the value of a degree in art history is going to go way, way up, because they'll be the best prompt engineers. And just like desktop publishing spawned legions of amateur typesetters, it will create lots of lore among amateur video creators.
I haven't seen a lot of use cases outside of productions and businesses, which shouldn't exist in the first place (at least to this extent).
Some of our "needs" are flawed, since "content" speaks to evolutionary relicts developed in times of scarcity and life in small groups. In the unbounded production of "AI", there is no way to keep up the sense of newness of input indefinitely. I am already fatigued by "AI" """art""". It has no real relevancy. You can't trust any of it.
Every medium where "AI" content becomes prevalent, will lose it's appeal. E.g. if I get the impression a significant proportion of comments here were "AI" generated, I will leave HN. Thing is, all these open platforms can't prevent "AI" spam. So they will die. Look at the frontpage of Reddit... it's almost all reposts, by karma farming bots. Youtube "AI" spam already drowning real content. This is what's going to happen to everything. User content will die. "Content" will die. The web will die. You won't even try, because of "AI" generated fatigue.
> My personal prediction is that the value of a degree in art history is going to go way, way up, because they'll be the best prompt engineers.
Lol. Yeah, "best prompt engineer" in the infinitely abundant production economy...
You people really need to iterate the world you are imagining a few times more and maybe think about some fundamentals a bit.
New technologies change the economics of how we satisfy our needs.
When search engines became good, many pundits confidently predicted Google would never replace librarians or libraries. It didn't. It shifted our relationship to knowledge; instead of having to employ an expert in looking things up, we all had to become experts at sifting through a flood of info.
When the cost of producing art-directed and realistic video goes to zero it's hard to predict what's going to happen. Obviously the era of video = veracity is now over. And you can get the equivalent of Martin Scorsese and a million dollar budget to do the video instructions for a hair dryer. Instead of hunting for a gif to express how you feel, captured from an existing TV show or something, you could create a scene on the fly and attach it to a text message. Or maybe you dispense with text messages altogether. Maybe text is only for talking to computers now.
My personal prediction is that the value of a degree in art history is going to go way, way up, because they'll be the best prompt engineers. And just like desktop publishing spawned legions of amateur typesetters, it will create lots of lore among amateur video creators.