>> will do nothing for emissions
> How can that be?
Because a reduction of domestic gas usage will just be diverted to less efficient LNG exports.
Given that by far the largest source of Victoria's electricity generation capacity is from dirty brown coal [1] if anything banning domestic gas usage might even make emissions worse since it will force people to use only electricity for cooking and heating.
> Direct consumption emissions are eliminated.
Ah, so burning Aussie natural gas in Asia (after it's been liquified and then turned back into gas) is somehow better for the environment than just burning it in Australia?
The chart you link to shows that Brown Coal, as both a total, and as an overall percentage of the grid, is decreasing, with renewables increasing.
Indeed, if you look at the three Brown Coal generators in Victoria[1], Yallorn is due to shut down in 2028 taking ~30% (1480MW) of that away, followed by Loy Yang A in 2035 which will take another ~40% (2200MW) of that capacity.
So, banning new LNG appliances now, and starting that migration will have a net positive impact.
This is true even if the LNG continues to be burned overseas if it's replacing coal fired generation capacity.
Is the correct strategy to wait to regulate gas usage until every country on earth does the same? That doesn't seem like a winning strategy. Someone always has to be last.
If you want to help the environment, you regulate both gas usage and exports. The goal is to keep gas in the ground, where it belongs, not to move it to other countries.
Except gas exports are largely being used to retire brown coal burning which is even worse for the environment than LNG. This isn't an all-or-nothing deal even with exports. The richer countries should take on the costs of better efficiency first and we can trickle those technologies down to other nations as they become cheaper than LNG and coal.
It is stupid, with less Gas available on the LNG Market other LNG Producers will increase production or they will use other Energy sources such as coal.
Except that it won't be that way forever. 30% of that generation goes away in 4 years. The rate of solar and wind generators coming onto the grid is massive, putting pressure on the brown coal generators.
We are also not talking about ripping out the existing install base of appliances.
It will take at least a decade or two for that switch to reach a critical mass. That's the point when it becomes uneconomic to continue operating the domestic piped LNG network in Victoria.
It costs money to transport LNG abroad. Ships, terminal infrastructure maintenance, people, it's all overhead. Ultimately if people stop using natural gas domestically there will be a reduction in production because that overhead eats into the profits of the producers.
How can that be?
Direct consumption emissions are eliminated.
Those with solar (a growing percentage) reduce their indirect emissions from grid non-renewable generators.
And there is a growing percentage of green generation on the grid.