I've asked a lot of people about the potential future of not having to spend 2/3 of our life working to be able to feed ourselves and have a roof, and I'm afraid so many people are what I could best describe as being "institutionalized" (to borrow a term from The Shawshank Redemption) that they can't even envision such life, to the point that they instantly start defending the current status quo, the 9-5 grind.
It's mind boggling to me how some people can't see that getting 2/3 of life back to do with as you please would be .. absolutely amazing.
Institutionalized is exactly the word you want, and many argue that this outcome is the more practical purpose of the school system.
The trouble is that the world after the institutions is a wild west, and so people who were well institutionalized struggle to adapt or flee to comfort inside one of the institutions (big corporates count too). Happy enough with the outcome, they are defensive of the institution that supports their lifestyle and perspective. Fair enough really.
I am being a bit general here, there is heaps of nuance and room for individual perspectives. But I think you are spotting exactly that, institutionalized individuals.
Instead of thinking of it as the binary work/not-work, think of it as activity/non-activity. Whether people are active building widgets or active planning things, people have to do something. Else people, at large, descend to animal level behavior (be it Netflix binging, gaming, gambling, drugging, etc.)
Surely a few percent would pursue meaningful (for humanity) pursuits, but it would be relatively few. Is whiling away your time at the beach any better than sending memos (emails) around?
I don't think we can basically go back to being apes. We are human and cannot rid ourselves of that.
Even for the “more enlightened”, there is a sense of Stockholm syndrome. IE I’m one of those who’d really love to escape the grind, but I’ve had to placate myself with all sorts of thoughts and “it’s not so bad”s in order to cope
One way to escape the grind is to be exceptional and exceptionally rewarded.
Another way is to be good and be diligent on how you spend your income. For most of us, the easiest way to escape the grind is to save our way out of it.
If the purpose of your life is to sell your limited time and health to be able to afford food and housing... My condolences. You don't need to self-destruct, you were already destructed.
Calling it a "purpose" takes this concept too far.
If my toilet is clogged and there's shit water all over the floor, I would do well to fix it. I wouldn't call it the purpose of my life, my raison d'etre, or whatever.
Having only one producer of each product has never worked out well. Besides, how are you going to decide who gets to work and who gets the results for free?
People are very, very actively working on the "robots can't do everything" challenge. Planning ahead for the societal impacts of that scenario instead of going "oh shit, what now?" afterwards seems... wise.
What would you do for purpose if robots can do what you can do, for cheaper, and thus put you out of a job?
Who is going to chop the wood for the cooking fire?
Who is going to churn the butter?
What galley slaves will row the cargo ships?
Who is going to drive the oxen ploughing the fields?
Reading the article reveals that the first thing in it is a woman who was annoyed by women having to clean the home, and who invented a self-cleaning home. That was in the 1970s. We're long past being able to have self-cleaning toilets if we wanted that. And pre-fab homes. And and and.
You can retreat into 'God of the gaps' of ever-shrinking necessary work, but that's usually a last ditch argument by people who have nothing stronger to argue with. Goodness forbid that your position be reduced to "toilets should have to be cleaned by a person, and it should be organised by money, so done by someone poor" as that would be strawman bad.
Yes self-cleaning toilets would take iron ore mining and steel manufacturing and so on, but factory work has been more automatable decade by decade, and it won't be a thousand years of current rates of change before basically everything is automatable.
It's useless trying to predict what human society would be like in 1000 years. I've read enough scifi to notice that none of the authors even get 20 years into the future right, not even close.
Medium-sized quibble; an individual working 2000 hour years is actually spending about 22.8% of their time working. If you subtract out 8 hours per day for sleep, they spend about 34% of their waking hours on work. These are, of course, overestimates, as the young and the elderly often do not work.
When I look at it from the perspective of having to work since 18 to 69 (which is when I can retire in my country), that's 51 years that I have to plan everything _around_ the fact that I spend the daytime of most weeks from mon-fri working. That I have to squeese whatever hobbies I have, whatever friends and family I'd like to spend time with into the little space in a weekend or the few hours I have after work, and suddenly it no longer feels like I only spend 22.8% of my time working.
Unless something is rather strange in your country, that is not when you can retire, that is the age you can collect a taxpayer-funded old age pension. Retirement is an amount of money, not an age - if you won the lottery, presumably you would not be conscripted and forced to work until age 69?
Not even counting commute times, there is a lot of undercounted prep-for-work hours. WFH, I am ready to login within 10 minutes from my alarm clock after basic hygiene. If I go into the office, significantly more time on preparing appropriate dress, grooming, whatever.
After work, I need additional time to wind down from the commute +work stress.
Well the thing to understand is "institutionalized" people can be pushed off whatever track they are on.
You just need to push. Great leaders do it all the time.
I have seen it happen when leaders are clear about what they want to achieve. Leaders who change goals and values with the wind end up on hamster wheels to nowhere.
A great example of it in large corps is the ability to push financial engineers around. Ofcourse you need finance background in addition to whatever your base skills are or its hard to pull off.
So financial engineers will show up to meetings with all kinds of tools to leverage cross border tax rate/interest rate/labor cost/currency/real estate/rent/insurance gaps. Plus ways to use large corp financial muscle to snuff out competition, play market capture games etc.
These guys are great to have on the team especially when the corp is going through bad times.
But when the tide turns and the skills of others shine, I have seen two kinds of leaders. One who gets so mesmerized by what profits financial engineering can achieve, they forget what their own strengths, goals, values and defer to finance logic.
But I have also seen leaders who will just push the financial engineer out of the room or convince them of some direction that will break their model. And its funny to watch cause no one can really argue against great profit making financial models. But it happens all the time when leaders know where they want to go.
I have to do more than imagine since there is always an outward pressure on my cohort to get off the payroll, maybe to come back as a lower-paid contractors. There is still the matter of being able to take out from the systems into which I've been paying for over forty years. That is a few years off unless it gets pushed even farther off which is a distinct possibility.
For most of us, financial resources are finite and the cost of existing in America - let alone living, let alone thriving - is out of reach for most. My job (technical field) was considered high paying and high skilled at one time in the not-so-distant past. My salary would now be considered entry level for tech people as defined by the HN community. This will not improve with time and the Ferengification of the society in which I was raised and educated. Every other place in the world is sliding down at an equal or faster rate so there is no outlet. Hobbies, passion projects, and service are all well and good in the abstract but many do miss the mental exercise from a job with infrastructure, equipment, and people.
Tithonus, without his knowledge, was granted eternal life without eternal youth. The modern horror, at least in the US, is outliving your savings.
I can't imagine the boredom of not producing anything -- I love to build. I consider this work. I would consider pure leisure to be defined as doing something with no obviously productive output.
There are certainly people out there who can be happy just watching TV and playing tennis, and that's fine, but the correlation of (voluntary) late retirement and longevity suggests that for most people, when we stop producing / having purpose, we just start to decompose [0]. I saw this contrast firsthand between some of my grandparents.
Some people do enjoy work, find meaning in it, and strive to have successful careers. Does a world without work still provide opportunities for people who want to work? Does it allow people to advance their wealth and social status?
I can't imagine a world where you're literally forbidden to perform any work. That someone could even ask that question just boggles my mind.
If you had free room and board and healthcare, you would not need to work. But of course you would be free to. Whether it be for someone else, or for yourself, or just to find some non-work activity that gives you meaning and pleasure. That's the point - the freedom to choose, not just a lack of freedom but in the opposite direction.
It's not about being forbidden, it's about all the meaningful work being automated. Sure, anyone in an ideal post-work world would be able to pursue whatever hobbies or interests, but work wouldn't be the same for humans, as nobody needs a person to work.
In a heavily automated world, you won't be able to get a job building widgets for Ford or IBM - but you will always be able to make hand-made furniture. There may not be jobs for security guards, but there will always be jobs for nursing-home attendants, and school teachers. If you WANT to work, there will always be meaningful things you can do.
"All meaningful work" going away is pretty unimaginable to me. And if that's what you're imagining, then IMO you've gone way past the realm of reasonable speculation and into fantasy.
I think another way of framing this is that many people rely on extrinsic motivation and are lost without institutional structure[1]. The question is whether there are other ways to channel that energy without our more traditional work institutions. I don't have the answer. In the past the church was another institution that could serve this need but for both better and worse church institutions are dying rapidly and nothing has really filled the void.
[1] to be clear, this isn't about intelligence. I know a billionaire who couldn't bear more than a few weeks without structured work and almost immediately started a new company after already making ~100MM which is why he is now a billionaire.
I’ve had this same conversation with people in investment banking, they work very long hours often with no weekend. The idea of not having to work a job is inconceivable to them. Even the ones who have hobbies outside of work like music, sports, etc felt strongly about the importance of their job.
They did seem to want shorter hours, but they took a lot of pride in how much time they spent working, humble bragging towards each other about how many hours they worked last week for example.
I think our work titles are too tied with our social status and identity for anything to change here.
As a 40 year old "institutionalized" laborer at the bottom of the IT pyramid I also cannot envision such a life. What does that time look like where my needs are met without having to sell my labor? Is it through a violent overthrowing of the systems of capitalism? Is it through the less violent revolution of Universal Basic Income? Or do we need to subvert capitalism from the other end with post-scarcity economics where energy is free and abundant. Or will post-scarcity only happen with free energy and some sort of Star Trek'esq replicator.
What I CAN envision is my labor becoming worthless. A level of worthless that no amount of education or personal character could make valuable again.
Its great to talk about not having to work. The mechanics of how we get there typically amount to hand-waving magic. Which if that is how we get there then I also want a pony.
The jobs that currently make up the bulk of the GDP produced by humans will be hit by automation hard. And we already scraped the bottom of the employment barrel with stuff like uber eats.
At this point i am more curious how people envision a continuation of the work week as is. Especially with an explosion of noncommercial innovation by individuals who can now do what took companies teams and years¹. Are we going to dig trenches and fill them back up to keep people from making existing business models build on planed obsolesce disappear? Even that is doubtful given the lower barrier of entry thanks to technological progress.
Edit: Giving you a pony is not that expensive btw. Especially with a lot of people likely building stables given enough free time. And you ordering one a year in advance producing plan-ability. Reducing costs and profit at the same time is just killer for the economy as is.
Creating demand for pony supplies might soon be the best thing you can do for the economy with your time.
Edit1: Having looked at pony prices, it seems i can get you a pony in 2025 if you want one. Show me some pictures how you are going to keep it, financing plan for its upkeep and character witnesses for you treating it well and i should be able to get you a pony.
It’s ideology. I take a marxist view on this: the method and mode of production in a capitalist politico-economic system encourages people to take their job into their identity and to think of themselves and others in terms of the labour value they can provide. For example, look at the fervour stirred up by right-wing types over people on state benefits, dehumanising rhetoric is the norm.
Like Zizek says, the conditions of society dictate what it’s even possible to believe at a subconscious level.
You already have that time. You don't "get it back". You already do as you please. What you please is to work for money to keep up with the Jones's and other people's expectations. (Some) other people don't do that - they live as homeless, as itinerants, as wanderers, as beggars, as monks and nuns and religious devotees, as self-employed contractors, as nomads, as freegans, as thieves and criminals, as trophy husbands and wives, as gypsys, as communal farm members trading piecework for food and board.
And yes, you choose the live you live because you want warmth and shelter and dental plans and good food and a laptop and a pension, and you reasonably think those things are better - but that's not someone taking your life, that's a choice, your choice.
And when you put it like that, "live in a tent and eat scraps so I can have 16 hours a day to myself" doesn't sound so "absolutely amazing" anymore, does it?
I always thought the problem was with me, but increasingly I observe that the people around me also hate the world of work, the politics at work, the greed, the falsehood, and the bullshitting.
The holiday season is so nice for gathering family and people who will soon move to another plane, but we have a limited time to enjoy all this because of a foolish convention that was invented where we must keep the gears turning 9-5.
It's a shame we didn't know how to appreciate the gift of life as we could have.
Yes, I agree with you. But unfortunately working is the best cooperation pattern we've found so far, the society keeps running smoothly if everyone is working. Maybe AI will change it, maybe not, let's wait and see.
I wonder what fraction of the population is "sitting on" talent they could pursue through hobbies or volunteer work if making a living didn't suck all their energy?
I am no saint, but I have some useful things I'd like to pursue with extra energy and time.
Took my first real vacation time in over a year (a block of days between christmas and new years). Wrote a novel from scratch in that time. My first time doing that kind of writing in easily ten years, and it was easy once I actually had enough distance from work.
> "ROCKFORD, IL—Retired post office branch manager Nancy Hollander, 97, died at her home of natural causes Tuesday, after spending her life completely unaware that she was one of the most talented musicians of the past century and possessed the untapped ability to become a world-class violin virtuoso."
> ""Nancy was the most gracious person I ever met," said retired coworker Geraldine Hunter, 82, echoing nearly verbatim what Pope John Paul II would have said after inviting Hollander to play at the Vatican in 1989. "She really lived every day to its fullest, and I don't think she could have been blessed with a better life.""
One of Lafargue's critiques: "Suppose that a commodity is overproduced, so that its supply outstrips demand. Its price will fall. To compensate, factory owners will cut costs or slow production. And that means they will pay their workers less or lay them off. Consumer demand will then further contract, incentivizing further wage cuts, which will further suppress demand."
As we know, this hasn't happened. Instead, factory owners build other widgets, either something that is currently undersupplied or something that is brand new. And of course they do this by changing the machinery in their factory and re-training their workers (or hiring new workers). Changing from gasoline-powered automobiles to EVs (to the extent this is happening) is an example. Most of the things we buy today, with the exception of meat and vegetables, are things that didn't exist a century ago. Even automobiles, tractors and airplanes little resemble those of a century ago.
In some cases the old factories are torn down and work moves elsewhere, along with the laborers, but this is mostly building new widgets that couldn't be built in those old factories. The Rust Belt and the coal mining areas of Appalachia are examples.
>Even in a perfectly just society, there will be people who just don’t want to do any care work at all: they will prefer to freeride rather than do their fair share, whatever that turns out to be.
>... If we really want an equitable division of care work, some people will need to be coerced into doing it.
>... Unwanted work can serve as a teacher, shushing the would-be brat that lurks in every human heart.
>... When a sulky teenager is made to set the table by her parents, her labor is alienated; she would rather be doing something else.
>But to know whether the teenager is wronged, it is not enough to know how she feels about setting the table.
>... Someone whose work serves a democratic community—a community for which they serve as a trustee, rather than merely as a mute resource—is not wronged, regardless of whether her work is dull or stimulating, cherished or resented.
Before we dream about not working, we should ask people who don't work how it goes for them. And there is one segment of the population that does not work (in the sense of going to a regular job or school, even if that job is mostly working from home): the retired. I joined that group a few months ago. Soon-to-be retirees are counseled to figure out what they're going to do with all that spare time. So far I've managed to find things, but I can see that it could become an issue; watching TV 8 or 12 hours a day is not anything I would want to do. Many retirees take up other jobs (maybe part time) not only as a way of supplementing their income, but as a way to have something useful to do.
The article mentions composing a sonata as something one might do if one had the time. I'm not sure that's entirely a serious suggestion; I don't think many people even know what a sonata is, much less have an appreciation for them--and still less have the ability to compose one. In any case, the idea that many people without work would create art--any kind of art--seems dubious. I can barely draw stick figures.
Oh I can imagine a world without work. Just not such a world in which most people don't starve except for the privileged minority.
Issues:
1. Lack of work will cause billions of people to drift around with no purpose, leading to serious social problems.
2. Work cannot be absolutely eliminated. Because the machine which feeds, clothes and houses people will need to be understood and maintained. If several generations of people literally don't do any work, including learning how to maintain the utopia, it will all go to hell in a houndbasket.
3. Some of those who choose to work won't necessarily want to coddle the others. They will view the majority of nonworking people as a superfluous load on the planet, that serves no purpose.
4. Some people work not just to sustain themselves, but for the sake of the work. Not only would it be cruel to take work away from them, but you basically cannot do that. Those people will find something to work on.
Someone else in the thread referenced Brooks from Shawshank Redemption; I think it's an apt comparison. A life lived believing work is the only purpose may well convince some that's the truth; they've become institutionalized.
1. A proper retiree who is able to indulge in hobbies is very different from someone barely sustaining themselves on basic income (?) or a version of it.
2. Sure, but in the near future this is baseless techno-optimism just like fusion or colonizing the Solar System
3. Today they are a vocal, but mostly powerless minority. They cannot, by and large affect national welfare programs. Imagine if such a small minority held power over all means of housing and production?
4. Some work will always be required, even just to live. For now, to maintain a western developed standard of living, it's actually quite a bit of work, when you consider e.g. high tech electronics, transportation system, healthcare.
You're countering your own strawman arguments here.
1. It's said that Britain produced its greatest rock 'n roll when it had the dole. They even rhyme. Point being -- I'm not sure that people need gobs of wealth to make art or to pursue other things that bring them satisfaction. UBI might lead to increases in certain kinds of intrinsically-motivated production.
4. If the western developed standard of living requires too much work, then one way out may be to abandon that standard. Perhaps it is a failed experiment. People in poor countries don't seem any less happy to me.
Every generation dreams about this utopia, and goes through the same philosophical arguments again and again. They even try it sometimes, through different flavors of Marxism, communism, hippie communes, farm communes, co-ops, kibbutzim, pick your favorite.
They eventually realize that it just - doesn't - work in most cases. There are some exceptions, like the kibbutz that is tied together with some overriding bond like religion.
This article touches on some of the issues - the free rider problem, efficient allocation of resources, the perils of consensus decision-making, etc.
Nothing is stopping y'all from trying it again. It might work for a while, but human nature is betting hard against you.
Many societies did not have a concept of owning land. If we're imagining a world without work, perhaps we should also try to imagine a world in which an individual cannot claim land as their private property. Especially is such claim rests on something arbitrary such as heredity.
People still want a roof over their heads. If they don't own the land, do they own the house? If so, do they have any control over the land that the house sits on? And if they don't own the house, then what determines who gets to live in each house?
Sure, you can imagine it, but people are gonna want it.
I mean, unless you want a generation of kids raised by robots and we expunge all records of private ownership from the historical record so the new generation doesn't get ideas.
"I want to live there, on the coast." What does this society do about that? Really explore this concept, don't just wave it off.
People are going to want things and not everyone will get them. And they'll invent ways to try to get what they want. And that'll be the re-invention of work.
> Now it is true that the needs of human beings may seem to be insatiable. But they fall into two classes --those needs which are absolute in the sense that we feel them whatever the situation of our fellow human beings may be, and those which are relative in the sense that we feel them only if their satisfaction lifts us above, makes us feel superior to, our fellows. Needs of the second class, those which satisfy the desire for superiority, may indeed be insatiable; for the higher the general level, the higher still are they. But this is not so true of the absolute needs-a point may soon be reached, much sooner perhaps than we are all of us aware of, when these needs are satisfied in the sense that we prefer to devote our further energies to non-economic purposes.
[…]
> For many ages to come the old Adam will be so strong in us that everybody will need to do some work if he is to be contented. We shall do more things for ourselves than is usual with the rich to-day, only too glad to have small duties and tasks and routines. But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!
* John Maynard Keynes, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (1930)
An essay putting forward / hypothesizing four reasons on why the above did not happen (We haven't spread the wealth around enough; People actually love working; There's no limit to human desires; Leisure is expensive):
wrong perspective: we are currently living in a world in full disconnection with reality. If we rationalize to essential jobs (see COVID), we would have easily more than a 50% unemployment rate in western countries.
This is not sane as it is giving some "value" to armies of BS jobs.
Often what people consider BS is simply ignorance on the part of someone making that judgement. There’s a reason people are paid to ‘stand around’ on construction sites etc.
Post COVID supply shortages shows the critical importance of many seemingly BS jobs. Similarly a spike in cancer deaths showed up when hospitals delayed less critical procedures.
Rather than BS what’s actually going on is more often chasing diminishing returns. Half the effort may be spent chasing 1% better outcomes as long as the difference is worth the expense.
It also assumes that everyone has the same wants in life. Yes, if we all lived the lifestyle of monastic monks, and gave up many luxuries than yeah, sure, we could live on very little levels of employment. The problem is that people want different life styles than that. It's like when the fuckcars crowd tells everyone they should just bike to work even though there's plenty of people that have deal with mobility issues, children, winter, not being in their 20s and etc. etc. One size doesn't fit all and something that one person thinks is useless and can be cut out is a thing someone else can't live without.
I am not a fan of the fuckcars crowd because I think their abrasive approach is doomed to fail. At the same time, I'm sorry but I just don't buy that there is a human right to a car centric lifestyle. I'll take it more seriously when we seriously address the many problems caused by excessive car reliance. To name a few: severe injury due to collisions, obesity and other health problems due to inactivity, noise and light pollution, destruction of natural habitat/migration patterns as well as mass roadkill, fragmenting of communities, destruction of neighborhoods, the loss of childhood independence, the loss of mobility for those who cannot safely drive, the subsistence trap for low income workers who rely on their cars to get to work and thus can't save any money, depletion of fossil fuels and the list goes on...
And, yes, of course there are also benefits. On the net though, I think mass private vehicle ownership is one of the worst mistakes we've ever made although I don't blame any individual for their choices. The reasons people use cars are rational but the externalities of mass car ownership are significantly and ultimately I believe unsustainable and undesirable. At the same time, chill, nobody is coming to take your cars or your guns.
Is asking Americans to have less than one car per adult family member really that much? Or to start buying smaller/more efficient cars instead of the monstrosities that pass for "Utility Vehicles"?
> children, winter, not being in their 20s and etc. etc.
Two kids, way past my 40s and biked year-round in Germany. Do I still use public transport and taxis? Yes. Have I spent less in a year on public transport and taxis that I would have spent on parking and car insurance alone if I wanted to have my own car? Also yes.
I must drive on a state highway to bike to where the company bus picks me up, despite being about 2 miles away. It's extremely hilly around here, so ebike is virtually mandatory. The "bike lanes" are a foot away from 30+ mph traffic on poorly-lit roads. Via public transit, my nearest friends are over an hour away in one direction. My family just bought a second car and it's freeing to be able to divide our kids and do things separately, instead of one parent being trapped near home.
> "It's like when the fuckcars crowd tells everyone they should just bike to work even though there's plenty of people that have deal with mobility issues, children, winter, not being in their 20s and etc. etc."
But those are reasons to be against car-centric design[1], and in favour of public transport - the disabled, children, the elderly, those with slowed reaction times, the poor - can't actually drive, or safely drive, or legally drive, or afford to own, cars. If cars are the only option for transport then life can only be good for the healthy mostly-able-bodied car driver[2].
> "One size doesn't fit all."
In all too many places, the only size available is 'car'; that you rally against bikes - and implicitly in defense of the status quo - while reminding people that "one size doesn't fit all" is dischordant. Can we have two, three, four sizes then? Walking, bussing, biking, tramming, driving?
> "is a thing someone else can't live without."
It's not an accident that you can't live without your car. Los Angeles had the largest electric tram network on the planet, and car companies used shell companies to buy them up and scrap them. Car companies spend a lot on advertising and propaganda to sell the idea of car ownership as a kind of American Freedom, and various zoning laws came to mandate car parks around businesses - pushing everything too far away to walk. It's not all conspiracy, but it's certainly not an inevitable "the way things must be". Arguing that 'fuckcars' people shouldn't want bikes, because some people can't live without cars, is reinforcing exactly the kinds of things they are angry about. That having to have a car to live, is an unquestioned default.
[1] not cars necessarily, but urban planning, laws, town and city layout, spending priorities, traffic priorities, where all the levers have been pushed fully over to cars.
[2] and being stuck in traffic on an ugly stroad which costs vast amounts of taxes to maintain and is dangerous to drivers and pedestrians, with car fumes, is not a particularly good life for those people either.
I don't think, and in general believe people label, not things like construction work or care givers as BS jobs.
BS jobs are the ones that only exist to support hordes of people having jobs; middle managers, service industry (all the downtown office worker coffee/lunch/bar/cleaners/maint). And most retail.
Cleaners are a BS job? They're an unpleasant one, perhaps. But that's not a BS job. (For one thing, they often are the ones that restock the toilet paper in the office bathrooms. Think about the implications of that job no longer being done.
If we're going to have offices at all, that's not a BS job.)
It's mind boggling to me how some people can't see that getting 2/3 of life back to do with as you please would be .. absolutely amazing.